Oil Weakness Can Support USDCAD and USDNOK

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Crude oil has turned down sharply from 73.00 area about we warned our readers already at the start of May when we spotted energy trading in fifth wave. We know that fifth wave is final leg of an impulsive structure, so normally when crowd becomes too optimistic and very bullish that’s when market is most likely to make a turning point. In fact, after that strong push up in the last 12 months we see a lot of analyst calling for 100USd, but these are the ones that were quite and no-where when crude was trading around $40 per barrel. That’s why Elliott Wave is so useful since you can be one step ahead of everyone.

So we see oil falling $8 from the highs, breaking the channel support line which is clearly evidence for an important bearish turn. Normally when five wave cycle is done price can retrace back to area of a former wave four, or even to termination which is near $60 per barrel. This is still 5% lower or so which means more damage can be done.

CRUDE OIL -daily chart


If you like trading FX, then with falling oil you may keep an eye on USDCAD which is now trying to break through the upper channel resistance line that can take pair much higher this year. USDNOK can also be in very similar bullish shape, especially if 8.4175 is broken.

Trade well,
GH