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Past Data and Elliott Waves Suggests Weak USD In August
Aug 06 2019
Based on past data on USD Index since 2015, we can assume that August will be another bearish month for the currency. In fact, there is also an Ellliott Wave formation that suggests the same... Question for some of you is, if this is positive for bitcoin? I think yes...
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Elliott Wave EURAUD Trade Review 200 Pips
Aug 02 2019
Today I want to talk about the EURAUD set-up. Its a trade review back from July that I took and shared with our members.
Elliott Wave & Intermarket Analysis For NIKKEI And USDJPY
July 31 2019
Today we will talk about stocks, specifically Nikkei and why USDJPY can see higher prices.
Well, as you may already know, in EW theory after a three-wave corrective decline, the trend should remain to the upside. This is what we see in the stock market all the time. However, Nikkei got our attention, because we can see a nice five-wave rally after that three-wave a-b-c correction, which means that Nikkei remains in uptrend, but after another three-wave correction in the lower degree, where ideal support would be here around 21450 - 21250 region, just keep in mind that bullish confirmed can be only if it manages to turn back above 21770 region!
In the right picture you can see tight positive correlation between NIKKEI and USDJPY, which means that if NIKKEI points higher, then even USDJPY can see higher prices, so do not be surprised if USDJPY remains bullish towards 109 area or higher.
So, seems like risk-on sentiment may continue and when we are in risk-on, we usually see bullish stocks, which are followed by recovery on XXX/JPY crosses. That being said, be aware of a bullish continuation on stocks, while XXX/JPY cross pairs may see a bigger recovery.
If you want to track USDJPY and other markets with me on a daily basis make sure to check our service here
Be humble, trade smart and wait for the right sentiment to enter the market,
EURAUD Intraday Longs Then Shorts?
July 29 2019
I hope you are now on the beach somewhere, enjoying a well-deserved vacation with your family while reading this post. So you are like most of us who cannot be without market quotes for more than a day or two. So what’s going on FX these days and what its interesting?
We have seen some very nice bounce on the euro since Thursday after Draghi announced that easing was going to be delivered in September, on several fronts including rates. The best moves were not seen on EURUSD, but rather on some crosses pairs such as EURAUD. This is very volatile pair for the last few weeks and even months as EURUSD and AUDUSD diverge. I have been short EURAUD a few weeks back based on bullish Aussie and gold view (BTW I will make a video of that trade soon). But now it appears that we should be looking at the other side of the EURAUD trend. Why? Because pair accomplished a very nice five waves of decline from 1.6446, confirmed by a five wave rise on an hourly char. It looks like the beginning of a three-wave recovery, like a zigzag which will be a contra-trend move on a daily chart that I would like to short sometime in the future, but for now, attractive can be wave B retracement to catch wave C towards 1.6230 resistance.
I will be watching it very closely and let you know about the developments on twitter @gregahorvatfx
If you want to track this and other markets with me on a daily basis make sure to check our service here
Trade well, GH
A Positive Correlation Between Coffee and BRL
July 16 2019Looking at the Daily Coffee chart, we can clearly see a strong bounce with five waves from the 88.0 region that can be suggesting a bullish reversal after a completed big ending diagonal, and at the same time we can see a nice bearish setup on USDBRL, especially after that five-wave intraday decline. In Elliott Wave theory, after every five waves, a three-wave pullback follows, so be aware of a temporary correction before a bullish continuation on Coffee and bearish trend on USDBRL resumes
Good morning fellow traders!
As you may already know, Coffee and Brazilian Real (BRL) are in tight correlation which can be clearly seen in the correlation chart below where we see USDBRL in orange turning lower, while Coffee can be putting in a low at the same time. But the most interesting part is the wave structure, so with the help of the Elliott wave model, we can easily put both markets into the one context. We assume that coffee futures will continue to rise while USDBRL will be declining.
Coffee vs USDBRL, Daily
However, we do not track these markets often, but we love to look at them if we spot something interesting.
Coffee + USDBRL, daily
Is AUDUSD Headed Higher?
June 26 2019Hello fellow traders!
AUDUSD is currently recovering from the 0.683 area, suggesting that a bullish continuation can be unfolding on the pair, especially when we connected the pair and its positive correlation with gold. On gold we see price breaking out of a triangle correction with five waves, which are still not visible, so be aware of more gains, ideally towards the 1485/1550 region.
For a better understanding what the market is doing, check the newest VIDEO analysis about the mentioned pair, and commodity.
EW Analysis: Bitcoin Can Be Approaching Important Resistance!
June 18 2019Hello Crypto lovers!
Today we will talk about Bitcoin BITSTAMP:BTCUSD!!
Bitcoin is in a strong uptrend since the beginning of 2019, but current intraday rise seems to be out of a triangle. What do you know about triangles?! Yes, triangles are corrective and continuation patterns, but they usually occur in wave "iv", so after a break out into a wave "v", we should be aware of a potential reversal since we know that in EW theory after every five waves, a three-wave pullback follows! So, do you see what's happening?!
The next important chart is definitely Bitcoin Futures . History is telling us that these GAPs which occur over the weekend, they usually get filled. If we take a look on BTC Futures chart, we can see two unfilled GAPs, so don't be surprised if we see a bigger decline soon, ideally back to projected support around 7200 - 6200 area!
Another evidence of a potential decline in the Crypto market can be Bitcoin Dominance chart! What we currently see is a corrective recovery in wave B within an expanded flat pattern, so seems like even BTC dominance might be approaching resistance soon.
That being said, not only BTC , many other ALTs are looking for a deeper correction, so if we respect those evidences and correlations with ALTs, then we should be really aware of a potential drop , ideally around 9500 - 10000 resistance area .
Be humble and trade smart.
BTCUSD, BTCUSD Futures, BTCUSD Dominance charts, 4h
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