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Elliott Wave: Eur/usd and S & P500


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Dec 22 2010

S&P500 is trading higher and higher reaching new high almost in every trading session. However, from an Elliott wave perspective uptrend may slow down in the near future, since price are already trading in a fifth wave, final leg of an impulse structure shown from 1173 lows. We know that at least correction follows after a five wave move is done! In fact, we can also see that bulls are losing strength, confirmed by a bearish divergence on the RSI, which is very common in fifth waves! First important target/resistance region of a current wave 5) is at 1260, followed by a 1280 region if move from 1231 extends.

As we know, the FX market is not following the stock market for some time now. Usually you would expect higher Eur/Usd if S&P trades higher and vice-versa. On the S&P Futures/EurUsd overlay chart we can see that poor correlation is the case already since mid November, after the Eur/Usd reversed from its 1.4280 highs. Now, the question is, will the euro find the base and will join to higher S&P? Or, will the S&P reverse from its highs and push the US dollar even higher against the majors?

Well, we favor even higher US dollar and S&P reversal yet to come, simply because of the wave count we showed you above.

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