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EURNZD Longs If Stocks Hits Resistance?!

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Our Services             NEW!!Elliott Wave School

Feb 07 2019

As commodities currencies turns down this week I think it's time to look at some of the crosses. I will look at EURNZD in particular as this one has a very clear path; five waves up from December 2018 low and then deep pullback which now appears completed at 1.6510 because of sharp rise out of the channel. We think more upside can be coming as current rally is looking impulsive, but as always we need pullback!

Another thing about possibly higher EURNZD is penitential turn down on stocks. Keep in mind that E-mini S&P500 is at resistance, so deeper pullback can be coming which may support EURNZD even more as longs on this one is risk-off play.

Please check video for more details:

Trade well, GH




 

Will 5th Wave Limit Upside For Gold?

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Jan 29 2019

No doubt, gold is bullish, unfolding five waves from the 1211 level as part of a bigger recovery. We can see that recently price found a base for corrective wave 4 at the 1277 level from where a sharp and strong leg up is currently unfolding. This strong move can be labelled as final sub-wave 5) in progress, which can look for resistance near the 1310/1320 area; it's a Fibonacci extension of 1.618% of wave four and also the upper Elliott wave channel line in that area, that can slow down the bullish trend.

Keep in mind that after every five waves market may retrace in three legs minimum, so don't be surprised if FOMC Press Conference and US NFP numbers will cause a turn.

A drop and daily close below 1300 would signal that a top has been found and that deeper pullback is coming.

For now, it's good to be patient here as I see metal ''too high to be long, and too soon to be short.''

Trade well, GH






 

Stocks heading higher; Can Bitcoin and friends follow?!

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Our Services             NEW!!Elliott Wave School

Jan 16 2019

Bitcoin is becoming very interesting after that clear five-wave rally from 3100 lows into a wave A/1 and clear three-wave a-b-c corrective structure in wave B/2, which leads into a nice inverted H&S pattern, so we could have a perfect bullish setup and a potential rally for wave C/3. Just keep in mind that bulls can be confirmed only above 4100 region. Invalidation level remains at 3100.
We have seen a lot of periods when stocks and Cryptos were trading together. Question is, if BITCOIN is lagging and if NASDAQ suggests higher prices for Cryptos too. We see stocks turning up impulsively, so higher Crypto should not be surprise. Stock market rally, specifically NASDAQ100 could easily lift Bitcoin and friends higher since we see a tight correlation between stock and Crypto market.

BTCUSD and BTCUSD vs Nasdaq, 4h


 

More Upside For AUD and NZD vs USD

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Our Services             NEW!!Elliott Wave School

Jan 10 2019

Some commodity currencies have been very bearish towards the end of 2018 and at the start of the January when Aussie fell beneath 2016 lows before it turned up. AUD has been one of the worst performers last year, but even this “weak” currency, so to speak, is showing evidence of a low after that spike down to 0.6700 area. Notice that pair might have accomplished a five wave decline down from last year high so a reversal higher can be in the cards now for a three leg rally back to 0.7400-0.7450 area.

AUDUSD Daily



Well, my attention at the moment is not on AUDUSD, but rather on currency that was relatively stable and doing well recently. It’s NZDUSD, which in fact has made five waves up from October 2018 low; that’s a very strong bounce that indicates more upside after pullbacks. Well, we have seen a nice pullback down to 0.6600 area where 61.8-78.6% Fibonacci levels already caused some buying, but much more upside can be in the cards if we consider that wave C) has room for a push up to 0.7140 based on equal leg projection. That been said, my idea is to watch the short-term set-backs here and trying to catch the move higher.

I you like my Elliott Wave analysis, then I welcome you to check our service and maybe take a trial to see an analysis in real-time.

Grega
https://twitter.com/GregaHorvatFX



NZDUSD Daily



10 year US note at resistance, SP500 at Support?

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Dec 19 2018

 
Below is the chart that can be very important for stocks as we approach the year-end. It's 10 year US note vs SP500. A turn down on 10 year US notes from 121 (where wave four flat may come to an end) may cause a bounce on stocks. Also, SP500 is at very interesting Feb 2018 level.

S&P500 vs 10Year US notes


AUDUSD IS Turning Bearish; Back to 0.7?

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Our Services             NEW!!Elliott Wave School

Dec 10 2018

Hello traders!
After some time, I have decided to share some free updates and analysis with you as I think this one can be very interesting based on clear pattern. I am looking at AUDUSD this week which has a nice and clear five wave drop from 0.7393 levels. Notice that this fall also took out the trendline connected from 0.7023 level which is an evidence of a completed corrective bounce from October low. As such, I am interested in trades on the short side of the pair, especially after intraday rally back to 0.7300 area which can be seen as wave 2) that may stop at that broken trendline. Even if that’s going to be wave B with limited upside, there is still room for a move lower to around 0.7100.

What is also very interesting when it comes to Aussie, is that this one is trading south despite strong Gold which is higher in a fifth wave, so now imagine what may happen to AUD if Gold suddenly finds a top and completes current uptrend. I think that in such case AUDUSD pair may fall very hard. On metal I am looking at 1250-1257 as potential resistance for current five wave cycle up from 1211.

If you want to track AUDUSD with me and stay on track of the wave count then make sure to check our services.

Trade well!
Grega









EURUSD; H&S Bottom In The Making?

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Our Services             NEW!!Elliott Wave School

Nov 22 2018

EURUSD rallied earlier up to 61.8% as expected from where we already see a reversal so it seems pair wants to go lower into wave c now; third leg o a pullback that can be looking for 1.1320, where new buyers may show up especially if we consider potential H&S bottom on the 4h time frame. However, keep in mind that H&S bottom is not confirmed until we see a broken neckline which would be only if pair goes back to 1.1470.








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