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Aussie Bears Are Back

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Oct 26 2017

There have been a lot of talks this year about a trend in change on AUDUSD pair as pair holds 0.6800 for two years now. Always, before you want to make a conclusion about the direction of a trend make a step back and look at weekly or monthly charts, and ask yourself. Is this uptrend or downtrend? Is recovery from recent extreme sharp or slow? Once you have answered these questions you can make a prediction for next probable move, which I think can be lower.

Look at monthly price action; I see a strong decline from 2011 high all the way down to a trendline connected from 2001. Notice that market did not go anywhere far lately, it’s just testing that trendline which can be breached in months ahead, if we consider that recovery is not looking strong from 2015; rather slow, thus corrective which is normal after that strong decline down through 2014 and 2015.



If we go even further and scroll down to a lower time frame, like a weekly chart then we can see that rise from 2015 was in three waves. And here comes the interesting part when it comes to Elliott Wave theory, which says that three wave rallies in downtrend are corrections, same like a three wave decline in uptrend that are also temporary set-backs. In other words, its just a pause within major trend, a sideways move that is trying to confuse a trader. That’s why is always important to make a step back, look at the bigger picture before make any trading decisions. Also, what we think is important is that turn down from recent high is impulsive if we look at daily chart, next to a weekly. It’s a five wave fall, not a three wave move, therefore it’s an important evidence of a new or temporary bearish trend.

There are also another inter-market relationships with gold, 10 year US notes and other markets that suggest more AUDUSD downside ahead. But we can talk about this in some other post.

Trade well,
Grega


NZD/USD Back In Downtrend, Crude Oil Testing Neckline-Elliott Wave Video

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Oct 24 2017

Good day traders!

We have seen some nice breakdown on NZD/USD last week, a push below two-year old trendline support which means that pair can be in a new bearish cycle. We are tracking an impulsive decline, meaning that weakness is expected to stay here until we see a big five wave drop from 2017 high. It’s a long way to go, thus an opportunity on the short side. I was looking for shorts overnight but missed them slightly above 0.7000, but want to give it a new try on a retest of that level, of-course after an a-b-c recovery that I expect to see by the week end.

If you want to hear more about NZDUSD then I invite you to watch my latest video analysis, in which I also talk about big Head and Shoulder pattern on crude oil and bullish view on GBPAUD.

Elliott Wave Video: Market Overview

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Oct 18 2017

In our new video I will look at Gold, 10 year US note, AudUsd, Bitcoin and Crude Oil



If you want more updates daily on different markets (FX, GOLD, OIL, SILVER, BITCOIN) then now can be your chance.

BitCoin Breaks Above 5k! Video

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Oct 12 2017


Today Bitcoin is breaking above 5000 level so we think it may be interesting to see where we go from here based on technical levels. I will also make a quick look at the USD index and EURUSD. 
Enjoy the video, GH

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If you want more updates daily on different markets (FX, GOLD, OIL, SILVER, BITCOIN) then now can be your chance.

USD Index Cylce and USDCNH

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September 29 2017

If you are paid member of our services, or watch our free charts and video updates then you know that we are still expecting another leg up on USD Index to complete bullish cycle from 2011. We think that USD index is now at some very interesting levels near 90.00, a strong support from where uptrend may resume. Well, some USD-based currency pairs will form tops or bottoms earlier than others, and potentially signals for upcoming turning point. USDCNH can be one of them; it's pair that has been in a nice uptrend since 2013; clearly in five waves followed by a three waves set-back to the area of a former wave four. We have seen a nice bounce from that region in the last three weeks which can be an important evidence for more upside. If that's the case then USD Index may also experience bullish price action by the end of the year, especially if we also consider that "corrective cycle" since 2015 may be near completion based on past two cycles that ended in 2011 and 2014.







Expect A "Pop-up" on Vix As S&P500 Search For Wave 3 high

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September 27 2017

Vix is at very low levels, a potential support if we respect reaction from the past and pick up in volatility . Normally this occurs when stocks are in corrective pullback, so we would not be surprised to see a new "pop-up" on Vix soon, maybe already this year, if we consider that S&P500 is trading at potential highs for a third wave.
GH



If you want more updates daily on different markets (FX, GOLD, OIL, SILVER, BITCOIN) then now can be your chance.

USDCAD Searching For Resistance

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September 25 2017


USDCAD is trading bearish overall, but on 4h chart we see price rising. This rising price action may only be temporary, as we see price trading within a complex correction of wave 4. Ideally a double zig-zag pattern is in the making within wave 4, which may search for resistance near the Fibonacci ratios of 23.6 or higher near the 38.2. resistance zone. Previous swing high at 1.2414 and 1.2668 level can also offer resistance and turning points.

USDCAD, 4H


We also see crude oil bullish, currently in a contracting range; a triangle which is continuation pattern, so it may cause a new leg up while market is above rising trendeline support. Further upside on energy market may cause stronger CAD.

Crude oil, 4H


 


 

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