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Gold 4h chart


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Dec 01 2010

Gold is trading higher for the past few days, but an upward structure from 1329 lows is showing signs of a corrective recovery after the trend changed direction on 9th of November. Important resistance region that traders should pay attention on for a potential reversal from a wave 2 high, is between 1390-1400 zone. We will remain bearish on that one as long as the market trades below all time highs. Keep in mind that any sharp decline from wave 2 top will be a very strong signal that prices are headed much lower, but right now however this is not the case yet!

If gold will turn lower, which has been one of the best investment for the past few weeks, then US dollar gains will likely accelerate against the other major currencies, especially against the Euro which was one of the weakest in November.

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Gold 4h chart:

Gbp/Usd Impulse Structure Underway


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Dec 01 2010

Cable fell sharply in the past week when US dollar gained across the board. Price broke through the support channel line connected from 1.5299, September lows which was a key breakout for a change in trend. As such we believe that an impulse structure is unfolding from 1.6300 region with a red wave 3) in process. In the past sessions, a sub-wave 3 reached 161.8% Fibonacci extension level of a black wave 1 distance, which is a typical third wave target, so some upward corrective pull-back is definitely expected. We are talking about a black wave 4 which may reach levels even around 1.5700 before downtrend resumes, but definitely must not move above 1.5839 critical region of a black wave 1, otherwise bearish count will become invalid.

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Gbp/Usd 4h chart:

S&P Gains Mean More Upside For Aud/Usd


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Dec 05 2010

Uptrend on Aud/Usd shown from 0.8065 May lows is unfinished since the pair formed only a three wave A)-B)-C) decline from the most recent 1.0181 highs. As such, we believe that this retrace was only a temporary pull-back, probably a corrective blue wave (4) which is part of an impulse structure. On our daily chart you will also notice that pair found the base in this past week just above 38.2% retracement area of a wave (3) distance and around the base channel support zone at the same time, which is a strong evidence that wave (4) lows are in place around 0.9530.

With this being said, the outlook for Aud/Usd remains very bullish with wave (5) yet to come, a leg that should reach levels above 1.0181 November highs.

Aud/Usd Daily chart:

In fact, when the global markets are moving higher traders usually grab the opportunity on high yielding currencies, such as Australian dollar. They buy high yielding currency usually against the U.S. dollar because the greenback has a negative correlation with the global market move, as investors take money from “safe havens” and put it into the risky assets.

Well, if we take a look on the S&P500 daily chart then we can see that “risk is on” and will likely continue till the end of this year. The price structure shows a contracting triangle in wave (4) followed by a wave (5) which will break above 1227 high soon. Once highs are out, market will have room for gains all the way towards the 1280 area, which also means more upside for Aud/Usd.

S&P500 Daily chart:

The last chart that we will show you today is an overlay chart between S&P500 and Aud/Usd which confirms a positive and very strong correlation between these two markets and that a recent reversal was just another correction within uptrend.

Aud/Usd and S&P Overlay Daily Chart:

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Elliott Wave Video: Eur/Usd (Bullish or Bearish?)


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Hello traders!

Today we will take a look on the Eur/Usd. We all know that price action was very slow in the past week and as such, many different wave counts are possible. However, today we will show you two of them, bullish and bearish interpretations. And we believe we will get answer and confirmation till Tuesday or Wednesday sessions.

In the video below we will present you critical regions for Eur/Usd that trader should pay attention on in the coming week. We will also discuss about the price action personality and why daily close price should be very important.

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Aud/Usd Ready To Gain Above Parity!?


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Dec 17

The whole price structure on Aud/Usd looks very bullish since the market formed a three wave corrective decline from November highs, followed by a five wave reversal labelled as a red wave 1), which definitely confirms a bullish trend. For the last couple of days the pair was consolidating between 0.9800 region and parity level, and it appears to be a flat correction in wave 2), with a recent wave C move down to 0.9828 region. If our interpretation is correct then bulls should follow immediately with a break through an important 1.0028 resistance, where gains should accelerate into a red wave 3).

On the other hand, we are also monitoring an alternate count, which shows that a move from 0.9535 low was in three waves, labelled as a red wave B), which could be part of a complex, huge unfinished blue wave (4) correction! We may switch to this count only if pair falls sharply below 0.9750 support while 1.0028 is in place.

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Aud/Usd 4h chart

Elliott Wave: Eur/usd and S & P500


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Dec 22 2010

S&P500 is trading higher and higher reaching new high almost in every trading session. However, from an Elliott wave perspective uptrend may slow down in the near future, since price are already trading in a fifth wave, final leg of an impulse structure shown from 1173 lows. We know that at least correction follows after a five wave move is done! In fact, we can also see that bulls are losing strength, confirmed by a bearish divergence on the RSI, which is very common in fifth waves! First important target/resistance region of a current wave 5) is at 1260, followed by a 1280 region if move from 1231 extends.

As we know, the FX market is not following the stock market for some time now. Usually you would expect higher Eur/Usd if S&P trades higher and vice-versa. On the S&P Futures/EurUsd overlay chart we can see that poor correlation is the case already since mid November, after the Eur/Usd reversed from its 1.4280 highs. Now, the question is, will the euro find the base and will join to higher S&P? Or, will the S&P reverse from its highs and push the US dollar even higher against the majors?

Well, we favor even higher US dollar and S&P reversal yet to come, simply because of the wave count we showed you above.

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DAX Gains Will Slow Down in Start Of 2011


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Dec 27 2010

Traders who are positioned Long on DAX or any other major indices, may look to start booking profits, as index is trading in a wave (5) and approaching its 7140-7180 target/resistance zone. This its a final sub-wave of a five wave rally shown from 5327 August 2010 lows, so any gains will likely slow down very soon, which is also confirmed by a bearish divergence on the RSI which shows that bulls are already loosing strength. In Elliott wave theory a turning point, at least corrective follows after every five wave rally. In fact, we anticipate some more important, larger turning point in 2011 from the highs, since we believe that gains from August 2010 is a wave C rally, part of a corrective structure that started already in March 2009.

With this being said, investors should look for safe investments such as Japanese yen and US dollar, a currency that should get even stronger against the weakest performer in 2010, the Eur!

DAX daily chart:

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