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Usd/Jpy Intra-day

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Oct 08 2010

Usd/Jpy fell down to 82.00 region recently, but we still don't see a completed downtrend. A recent slow price action should be only a corrective red wave 4), sub-wave of a blue wave (5). As such, more weakness is expected as long as the market trades below 83, wave 1) region. If 82.00 is out look for a decline towards 81.50 area.

Usd/Jpy 1h chart:




Eur/Usd Daily Chart Update: Correction Expected

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Oct 17 2010

Eur has reached new highs against the US dollar in the past week around 1.4150 but prices fell on Friday, and closed below important 1.4000 psychological level. A downside reversal or at least deeper correction may be near, especially as we can also count a clear five waves up from 1.2587 wave (B)/(2) low. Elliott wave traders will know that once a five wave move is done change in trend appears! As such, a break below 1.3775 wave 4) low and daily close below the red trend line at the same time, will confirm that lower prices are underway.

The RSI indicator already moved below its trend line support and suggests that move from 1.2587 is near completion. Bearish cross on a MACD will be another signal for US dollar recovery.

Eur/Usd Daily Chart:



Gold "Corrective Pull-back"

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Oct 21 2010

Gold moved lower this week, right into the base channel zone where the recent price action found a support. We still like the idea that a decline from the top is correction, labelled as a black wave 4 on the updated count. You will notice that prices also retraced 38.2% of a wave 3 distance into the previous fourth wave area, where usually fourth waves find a base, before trend reverse into a wave five. In our case that would be on the upside, above 1387, while the market trades above 1254 critical wave 1 region.

Gold 4h chart:




Aud/Usd: Moving Towards Parity

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Oct 25 2010

Aud/Usd is trading towards 1.0000 level as expected, as prices made a corrective pull-back in the past week, bottomed at 0.9658 region, labelled as a black wave 4. Wave 5 is now in process and should break above parity level in the near future, which will put 1.0100-1.0150 targets in play. Keep in mind that wave 5 is a motive wave, so it needs to be structured by five waves, before we may look for any type of a larger reversal!

Aud/Usd 4h chart:




Oil: Unfinished Uptrend

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Oct 26 2010

Oil was trading lower over the past few trading days, and formed a very choppy and slow pull-back. A personalty of a prices action looks very corrective, which means that higher levels are expected, since we came out with a complex (W)-(X)-(Y) pattern. A powerful bounce from 80.40 region seen over the past sessions suggests that an early moves of a red wave 5) are underway. More strenght expected towards and above 84.30!

Oil 4h chart:




Gold Intra-day: Near-term Bullish

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Oct 26 2010

Gold should be headed higher in the very near term, at least towards the 1360, as we anticipate at least three wave move on the upside from 1315 lows; either you count a decline from 1387 highs as a five wave move or a complex double zig-zag correction.

Gold was pulled lower recently in three wave structure from 1349, which should be only a second, but corrective wave of that three wave bounce that is unfolding. Break of 1349 resistance will put wave (iii)/(c) in play. Wave count remains valid as long as prices trade above 1315 support zone

Gold 1h chart:




Usd/Jpy: Bullish Reversal!?

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Oct 28 210

Usd/Jpy: Bullish Reversal!?

Usd/Jpy formed a sharp impulsive downtrend over the past few weeks, from 85.95 top, which was established after the BOJ intervened in September. Obviously, intervention did not work as pair formed a nice five wave, called an impulsive decline with a recent low at 80.40. Always when five sequence is finished, a correction in the opposite direction occurs; and this is exactly what is unfolding right now on Usd/Jpy. In Elliott Wave theory a correction is always structured minimum by three waves, and since we can see only one leg from the lows we anticipate at least one more push higher after a wave (2)/(B) pull-back is finished. Another evidence for a temporary change in trend is also a broken trend line, connected from 85.95 highs, which may react as a support in the near future, plus bullish divergence on the RSI.

Usd/Jpy 4h chart:



If we go down to 1h chart, then we can see that an impulsive structure from 80.40 found the top yesterday, somewhere around 82.00 region, from where market formed a three wave of decline, which should be a corrective A)-B)-C) move within a blue wave (2)/(B). Traders may keep an eye on a significant support region shown around 81.00-81.15, from where upward continuation could be seen. Wave count and bullish bias remains valid as long as the pair trades above 80.40 lows.


Usd/Jpy 1h chart:




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