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Usd/Jpy An Impulsive Decline

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Aug 25 2010

Usd/Jpy moved significantly lower yesterday as expected, after the prices broke through the lower side of a triangle pattern. Target around 84.00 mentioned yesterday was reached, in fact prices moved even 40 pips lower, before pair found the support. Wave 5) low could already be in place, or at least very near, if you take a look on alternative wave count (ALT on the chart). We all know what follows once a five wave move completes; a change in trend, at least temporary.

Usd/Jpy 4h chart:




Eur/Usd Pull-back

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Aug 27 2010

Euro slowed down as the sharp decline from the highs found a temporary support at 1.2587 zone. We can count clear five waves down from the highs, which confirms a temporary change in larger trend. However, upward pull-back all the way towards the 1.2900-1.3060 zone could be seen in a red wave 2)/B), before down-trend resumes, You also need to keep in mind that wave 2)/B) usually reverses in the area of a fourth wave, of a smaller degree; that would be in a triangle pattern on our chart, around 1.2800 level.

Eur/Usd 4h chart:





Oil: Searching for a resistance

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Aug 30 2010

Oil moved higher as expected, after the structure made five waves down within a larger red wave 5). As such, an upward correction is now shown from the lows which in fact could be extremely near completion, considering to a three wave, A)-B)-C) bounce from the lows. A corrective blue wave (2) leg also moved into a territory of a red wave 4), where trend usually reverses. Weakness will definitely come; its not question IF anymore, its just a matter of time..

Oil 4h chart:




S&P Bearish Breakout Below 1010

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Aug 31 2010

An impulsive decline seen in 2008 was reversed by an upward choppy price action that topped out recently at 1220. This was probably a red wave B)/II), which also reached a typical 61.8% retracement level where a corrective trend usually reverses. MACD has moved below the zero recently, and suggests mid-term losses towards the 900 area once the neck line of a potential headed and shoulders pattern shown around 1010 is taken out.

S&P weekly chart:




Eur/Usd Intra-day Review

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Sep 01 2010 06:58 EDT

Euro moved higher in the first part of the European session today, and broke through an important 1.2777 level, which puts now even higher levels in play. In fact, an impulsive upward move, wave C leg could be unfolding from 1.2625 zone, where wave B, sub-wave of a corrective wave 2)/B) found the lows. More strength is expected in the near future, at least towards the 1.2850 area.

Eur/Usd 1h chart




Eur/Usd Intra-day: Top in place at 1.2917

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Sep 07 2010 03:55 EDT

Temporary top is in place as the prices fell sharply during the Asian session, driven by lower stock market. We can count clear five waves down from the 1.2917 top, which means that this decline is a part of some larger bearish structure. Any three wave upward, corrective bounce from today’s low, which will appear in the very near-term, should be a short opportunity from a wave (ii) top. Weakness expected.

Eur/Usd 30min Chart:



Dollar Index "Intra-day Reversal"

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Sep 10 2010 04:10 EDT

Dollar index moved above the 82.90 overnight, but reversed very powerfully from there, once the European session got underway. It seems that bulls are not ready to take control yet; in fact we may see more down-side in the very near-term, either the bounce from the lows is corrective, (a)-(b)-(c) move, or if a complex wave (b) flat pattern is still unfolding (ALT on the chart). Overall, price action does not look clear at the moment, so any taken positions should be managed very carefully until we get more price data!

Dollar Index 1h chart:





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