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Euro Crosses Video Analysis

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June 07 2011

Markets are very calm today during the US trading session, with majors trapped in a very tight range. As such, it’s a perfect time to look at some cross pairs, especially with Euro, which is in a quite bullish mode for the past few days and weeks.

We will take a look on the Eur/Aud which found the support in the past month around 1.3220 and is looking very constructive on the upside for the next few weeks.

We will also review weekly, daily and 4h charts on Eur/Chf, where pair is trading sharply down as traders look for safety in Swiss franc, especially since stocks turned lower in Early May.

Eur/Gbp also looks very interesting within a current bullish mode, which however it may not take so long, as highlighted in the video.



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Eur/Usd Up to 1.47 While Above 1.4510

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June 06

Trading during Asian and European hours was relatively slow but still bearish for stocks after poor NFP numbers from Friday.
Nikkei lost more than 1% of value, which however did not help to lift the US dollar, which is still trapped in 50-80 pips ranges against the majors at early start of the US session! Dax is currently trading almost unchanged!

From a technical perspective we still may see dollar weakness in coming hours/sessions, maybe not against all major currencies out there, but definitely against the Euro, which has been one of the strongest in the past week.

From an Elliott Wave perspective, we see incomplete wave 5 leg on Eur/Usd from 1.4306 region. We know that wave five is a motive wave, which means it must be structured by five smaller waves, before trend can be complete. So, will we see a final spike up to 1.47 before a near-term top is formed?

Critical region stands at 1.4512!



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Video Analysis: S&P/Dollar Correlation and Gbp/Jpy

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June 06

The Us dollar was mostly flat against the majors during the Asian hours, but we can already see some strenght now, as European stocks trade lower.

Well, trading in this week should be quite interesting, to see how broken correlation between Eur/Usd and the equity market will play out, which was broken in the past week, when dollar and stocks found sellers after the poor US economic data. Well we still think that further weakness on stocks may cause the reversal on the US dollar and send the Japanese yen even higher at the same time. More in the video below. Price action will tell!

having problems with video below? Click here

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Usd/Chf Down to 0.83

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May 29 2011

Usd/Chf reversed sharply on the downside at the end of a trading week, as pair was unable to gain above the falling channel resistance line. As such, bears are back and fully in progress, now targeting 0.8300 region.

You may notice that we are looking at the line chart, which shows more clarity and no overlap between waves (1) and (4). So, if we are correct, then final leg, wave (5) of wave III is now in process which may slow down somewhere around the support channel line. If this trend line is broken powerfully with daily close well below it, then losses will likely extend even below 0.8! ALT count prepared for that scenario!

It should be fun next week monitoring an intra-day sub-structure in this bear market!




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Usd/Jpy: Ready For A Fall?!

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May 24 2011

Usd/Jpy found some bid in recent days, but nothing significant. The price action is slow, with very small volume involved and still trapped within a trading channel; so for now its clear indication of a corrective price action. As such, we believe that this pull-back is a complex wave B), with lower wave C) yet to come. A break below the corrective channel line should provide weakness within a lower wave C) towards and even below wave A) 79.57 support.

Strong resistance seen at 82.30 and 82.80-previous wave 4 high!


Usd/Jpy 4h chart:


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Gbp/Usd: Downtrend In Progress

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May 12 2011

Pound has formed an impulsive fall from 1.6517 region in past few sessions, where a previous three-wave bounce from 1.6270 has likely completed. We know that only corrective waves are structured by three legs, and since prices already moved below previous wave (b) support we are quite confident that this pair is headed much lower.

There is a very importnat trend line connected from start of the year, so a break here and a daily close below it will likely put even more aggressive bears into action! In such case we would not be surprised if levels around 1.600 psychological region will be achieved, which is definitely possible if risky assets (commodities stocks) will continue to fall.




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Aud/Usd: Corrective Pull-back

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May 10 2011

Aud/Usd lost some ground in the past week, moved few pips below 1.0580 region but enough for invalidation of any bullish impulsive incomplete structure. As such, we think that top is in place, despite hawkish RBA at the end of the week, when pair found the support around 1.0535. From a technical point of view, prices reversed only into a corrective phase, labelled as a black wave 2/B.
If we are on the right track then downtrend should resume soon,with impulsive reaction through 1.0659, which will be a key for more weakness on that pair.

Critical/invalidation region for now stands at 1.1008.





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