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Aud/Usd: Recovery Searching For A Top

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Aug 31 2011

Aussie rallied into a new high in recent sessions, after the prices were unable to break through the swing lows that we paid attention on in the past week. So as long this pair will be forming higher highs and higher lows, trend will be considered as a bullish, but still corrective!
We are now looking at the updated wave count from August lows which is corrective, showing a double zig-zag pattern with final part; wave (c) in progress. If we are correct, then an impulsive bearish reversal should occur in coming days, but the question is from where!? We will keep an eye on resistance at 1.07M testing right now, and then maybe even at 1.09, where second will equal to the first zig-zag.



Gold: Temporary Top?

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Aug 24 2011

Gold reversed quite sharply yesterday from 1911 top, a move that shows impulsive personality on a smaller time frame. In fact, prices broke through the blue support line, which is the first but very important step towards the temporary bearish price action. Well, from an Elliott wave perspective, a weakness should not be a surprise after-all, as we can count five sub-waves within a black wave 3. we know that after very five waves, correction follows! As such, we see huge possibilities of a temporary top at 1911, with more weakness to come within a black wave 4 corrective pull-back!



Euro It`s a Better Buy against the Cad Rather than the US dollar

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Aug 19 2011

Euro is trading higher, showing signs of life after the Spanish government approved additional spending cuts to help achieve deficit target.

For those who want to take advantage of the Euro moves, should take a look on some crosses and go away from the US dollar noise, as Euro has been trading much better lately against the Canadian dollar and others.

The wave count on eur/cad is still pointing higher as shown on the chart below! Pair remains bullish as the most recent price action appears corrective around the top, likely a fourth wave triangle from where bullish break should occur in the near term, and send pair towards 1.44/45.

The triangle pattern contains five waves that subdivide 3-3-3-3-3 and are labeled (a)-(b)-(c)-(d) and (e), and occurs just prior to the final move in the larger pattern. In our case black wave 5 will be the final wave, so watch out for reversal signs once wave 5 progresses.




Corrections on Aud/Usd and S&P Near Completion

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Aug 16 2011

Today should be a quite interesting day with traders focusing on the German chancellor Angela Merkel and French president Nicolas Sarkozy meeting in Paris; who will attempt to ease market concerns about Eurozone debt troubles.

Why we also think that trading could be interesting is a technical outlook of the S&P Futures count, where a corrective recovery is running out of time. We should see a resolution very soon, which we believe it will be on the downside. We will keep an eye on a possible impulsive reversal from the top, which should send the US dollar higher after-that. In such case commodity currencies, such as Aud, Cad and NZD should weaken against the buck.

Looking at the euro, the overall price action is still very tricky there, but we may see some weakness coming, after German GDP for the first quarter was weaker than expected; 0.1% vs. 05%.

S&P Futures and Aud/usd technical outlook:

Recovery from the lows cannot be counted in five waves, so move is considered as a corrective, part of incomplete downtrend.



Aud/Usd has a very tight correlation with S&P Futures, which in fact also shows signs of a corrective recovery from its low. An impulsive reaction towards or below 1.03 will suggests that correction is done and that market is ready to move much lower.




Gold: Correction Coming

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Aug 14 2011

Gold reached a new all-time high in this past week, above $1800 per ounce from where we saw almost $100 sell-off till the end of the week. Well, based on the wave structure and substructure (4h chart) of a parabolic rise we would really not be surprised to see further weakness in the coming days, but only temporary as we look for a wave 4 pull-back.

For those who want to join this rally should wait on the solid corrective pull-back first! Now it could be too late.




Aud/Usd Moves Into A Correction

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Aug 9 2011

Aud/Usd collapsed below 1.0 psychological level, but reversal from the lows is even more significant. As such, we suspect that wave 3 has bottomed and that larger corrective recovery is underway, labelled as a wave 4. If that's the case, then this reversal is still far away from a completion, as we need to see three legs; (a)-(b) and (c), before we may look for more weakness on this pair.

Resistance that we should pay attention on is around 1.04!

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Gold and Swiss Franc Should Rally After the S&P Downgraded US Credit Rating

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Aug 07 2011

Standard and Poor's downgraded the U.S.'s sovereign credit rating from AAA to AA+ on Friday after the market close. There are a lot of speculations how the markets will react, which should be US dollar negative. Now, the question is where the money will go!? We believe it will be nothing different compared to what we saw in the past week. Swiss franc and gold should rally as safe-haven investments! The Japanese yen will also not be an exception, but gains on that one may quickly slow down because of possible intervention speculations.

Some one would also have think on commodity currencies, such as Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollar, but because of very tight correlations to commodity and stock markets that are falling; we don't think that those currencies will be a good choice however! Technicals are also showing negative trend on those, so its better to avoid them at this point.

G-7 will meet up today through the conference call, and will discuss about Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis and a cut in the US credit rating. But what they will really try to do here is to calm down the markets and move investors away from a potential "fear factor", which will not last long however.

If you want to trade during Asian hours, you will have to be very nimble. We are staying aside for now.

Back with you as European market opens.

Trade well!


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