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Usd/Cad: Sell-Off To Come

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July 18 2011

Usd/Cad reached levels above wave (a) recently and if we are correct, then we know that wave 2 flat correction should be near completion, which will send Usd/Cad into a new low. In fact we can see also sign of a huge head and shoulder pattern, which is another evidence for a continuation of a bearish trend.

Weakness in view towards 0.940 and even lower as long as the critical region at 0.9777 remains in place.



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Usd/Chf Eyeing 0.8000 Psychological level

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July 18 2011

Usd/Chf made a nice sell-off in the past week, from 0.8500 region where wave (e) completed a very nice, clean running triangle. We know that triangles unfold just prior to the final move in the larger pattern. Most typical appears in wave four of an impulsive wave and wave B of a zig-zag move (three wave, corrective structure).

Well Usd/Chf is falling for more than a year now, so we are quite confident that this triangle was in wave 4 and not wave B. As such, current sell-off must be wave 5 where five sub-waves will cause a bullish reversal, at least temporary.

At the moment, however, we still believe that pair is trading in wave (iv), so wave (v) still in view towards and below 0.8000 psychological level.
 





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(Video) Elliott Wave: Eur/Gbp Eur/Aud and Gbp/Aud

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June 28 2011

Will Australian dollar find buyers against the Euro and pound? Well, if Eur/Aud reverses soon, then definitely, since Eur/Gbp is already in a bullish mode. On the other-hand, we also need to see higher risk, which will support the Australian dollar higher as well, as in such case investors are interested in high-yielding currencies! More in the video below!


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Eur/Usd: Bullish Or Bearish?!

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June 27 2011

Despite some strong moves and quite high volume in recent weeks, Eur/Usd remains trapped in range between 1.4938 May highs and 1.3967 May lows. As such, direction of a trend on this pair remains unconfirmed, which however should unfold to the downside if we consider weakness on other markets, especially commodities which supports the US dollar.

In the next video we will describe the situation on Eur/usd, and why both bullish and bearish scenarios are still possible!



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Eur/Cad Will Trade Lower

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June 22 2011

Euro reversing from its highs, as stocks found some sellers during the FOMC Press Conference. US dollar was mostly stronger, but Canadian dollar was acting quite well during this time. As such, we looked at some crosses, and Eur/Cad should be really interesting. We are expecting a rise of Canadian dollar against the Euro even if dollar rises against Euro and Canadian dollar at the same time.

Eur/Cad technical comments:
A bounce from June 2010 lows; exactly one year back, cannot be counted impulsively. So if its not impulse, then we know its corrective move, a double zig-zag pattern; W-X-Y as labelled on the chart! With this being said, we believe that Long-term trend is down, so long-term investors should look for shorts on that pair, rather than longs.

Eur/Cad Daily:


In fact, if we take a look on the next 4h chart, then we can see a five wave decline from 1.4378 highs, called an impulse where wave iii) is the longest, and waves iv) and i) do not overlap!. Elliott Wave theory says that impulsive waves shows direction of a temporary trend, which is down, and should continue, once corrective wave (ii) bounce from 1.3820 completes.

Generally speaking, pair should reach levels well below 1.382, while highs from early June are in place.

Eur/Cad 4h:


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Euro Forming A Corrective Uptrend

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June 22 2011

Asian markets are higher today after Greece government passed yesterday its confidence vote. Despite Eur/Usd spike up to 1.4430 followed by a sharp reversal yesterday, pair remains in quite slow but still up-trending mode.

Well, from a little bit larger perspective we may see a higher dollar as Eur/Usd recovery from 1.4073 is very slow and quite choppy on the smaller time frame. As such, we believe this is only a corrective pull-back, wave 2, labelled as primary count, or maybe wave D) of a triangle labelled as Alternate count on the chart below. In both cases, bearish reversal should occur while market trades below 1.47, but before that 1.45 may still be tested.

Cable also shows corrective personality from the past week low, but top however is still not formed. Well, BOE meeting minutes are today at 04:30 and a dovish tone may definitely be a catalyst for a reversal on cable.

FOMC meeting also today, during the US session, when the latest forecast for the US economy will be announced




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Video Analysis: Eur/Gbp, Aud/Jpy and Aud/Cad

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June 21 2011

In the next video we will discuss about Eur/Gbp and why we still think that this pair is headed higher. We will also focus on Aud/Jpy, a pair that is highly correlated to stock market. And finally, will look at Aud/Cad- which commodity currency will strengthen in days ahead!?

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