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Gold Is NOT A Safe-haven; Now Headed Below 1530

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Dec 29 2011

Commodities are trading lower in this week, while US dollar is rising sharply after reversal lower on equities. One of the very weak markets is also gold, which definitely does not have a status of a safe-haven at this point of time. In fact, if we take a look on the intra-day sub-structure from 1641 high, then we can see some sharp bearish moves, which seems to be an impulsive pattern, but likely incomplete. From an Elliott Wave perspective, we believe that yesterdays sharp decline was wave three, so any bounce in the near-term will be only another corrective leg; wave four of an impulsive. We know that impulses are structured by five sub-waves, so more weakness is expected after a minor pull-back, ideally from 1565.

Our downside price objective is at 1530/1520; September lows.



And below is a short description that our subscribers received on Dec 21st 2011:
  • Gold reversed nicely in the past few sessions, in-line with our expectations, from around 1640 area. A minor fall from the top has an impulsive shape, so we think that top is in and that prices should move lower, especially as market is already trying to break out the support channel line. But to get even more sure about the "top in place", you may also wait on a daily close price action. But in either case, if wave 4 done, then we don't want to see price back above 1642.



"Recorded" Webinar

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Dec 21 2011

Hello traders!

We encourage you to take your time and review a recorded webinar from yesterday "Introduction to Elliott Wave Theory", which was made in cooperation with FXStreet.com.

Speakers:
-Grega Horvat
-Aleksandar Koprivica


Agenda:
-Elliott Wave Introduction
-Basics of the Elliott Wave Theory
-Live Analysis


Get the Flash Player to see this player.


Aussie Is Approaching 0.9800 Support

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Dec 19 2011

Aussie extended loses deeply into a wave E) in the past week, below 0.9900 level. As such, we need to keep in mind that pair could be trading in final stages of wave E) pull-back, especially after reaching 61.8% retracement area. An impulsive reversal from the lows and through 1.0163 resistance will definitely confirm a bullish case. For now however trend is still down, but must not fall below 0.9550 critical region!



S&P 500, Eur/Usd and Eur/Chf

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Dec 14 2011

Us dollar is trading sharply higher in this week, the moves are really significant particularity against the Euro, which always lost more than 200 pips when the S&P Futures fell just 25points. Well, if we take a look on the S&P Futures chart, then we can see that move from the 1270 peak is in five waves. Well, corrections are never in five, so we know that this five wave movement is only a first leg of incomplete corrective decline started at 1271. Its wave (a) of a zig-zag, which is now our primary view. As such, we will now look for new lows, in (c) leg. Well, there is also another interpretation from a top, like a (w)-(x)-(y) as shown on the S&P500 cash market below. But in either case, we should get below 1214 and probably into 1200 zone. And what this tells you!? To us it seems that Euro will fall even deeper!

S&P Futures Count#1



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S&P500 Count#2



We are also still keeping a close eye on the Eur/Chf ahead of the SNB press tomorrow. Wave structure from the highs clearly corrective with projected time wave C) low or break higher around 03-04EST tomorrow. Very interesting, the press conference is at 03:30EST.




Potential Trade Set-ups For The Week Ahead (Dec 12)

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Dec 11 2011

Hello traders!

Despite some action on the FX market in the past week, provided by the ECB rate decision and EU summit most of the major pairs remained trapped in a range, sideways market. As such, we decided to take look on some FX crosses, such as Eur/Chf and Eur/Aud for potential trade set-ups.

We will pay a very close action to Eur/Chf, which is forming a very nice clean triangle pattern from where we expect a bullish breakout in the coming week. We know that SNB will do everything possible to prevent any gains of the Swiss franc, and if we aso consider the euro zone's latest plan to solve its debt crisis, then this should be supportive for the Eur/Chf! Click on the video below for a technical analysis, which also includes Eur/Usd and S&P500.

If you want updates for those pairs and others in the coming week, then you can join our services here.




Dollar Index Count

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Dec 09 2011

On dollar index we are still monitoring a corrective, incomplete price action in wave 2, as recovery from Nov 30 appears to be very slow and choppy, so its probably just another corrective leg of wave 2. Our latest interpretation for wave 2 is a flat correction, currently in (b) wave with wave (c) yet to come.



More Strength For Australian dollar

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Dec 07 2011

In the video below we will present a detailed technical analysis for Eur/Aud and Gbp/Aud that was shared with subscribers but now also available to you!




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