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Aussie Is Approaching 0.9800 Support

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Dec 19 2011

Aussie extended loses deeply into a wave E) in the past week, below 0.9900 level. As such, we need to keep in mind that pair could be trading in final stages of wave E) pull-back, especially after reaching 61.8% retracement area. An impulsive reversal from the lows and through 1.0163 resistance will definitely confirm a bullish case. For now however trend is still down, but must not fall below 0.9550 critical region!



S&P 500, Eur/Usd and Eur/Chf

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Dec 14 2011

Us dollar is trading sharply higher in this week, the moves are really significant particularity against the Euro, which always lost more than 200 pips when the S&P Futures fell just 25points. Well, if we take a look on the S&P Futures chart, then we can see that move from the 1270 peak is in five waves. Well, corrections are never in five, so we know that this five wave movement is only a first leg of incomplete corrective decline started at 1271. Its wave (a) of a zig-zag, which is now our primary view. As such, we will now look for new lows, in (c) leg. Well, there is also another interpretation from a top, like a (w)-(x)-(y) as shown on the S&P500 cash market below. But in either case, we should get below 1214 and probably into 1200 zone. And what this tells you!? To us it seems that Euro will fall even deeper!

S&P Futures Count#1



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S&P500 Count#2



We are also still keeping a close eye on the Eur/Chf ahead of the SNB press tomorrow. Wave structure from the highs clearly corrective with projected time wave C) low or break higher around 03-04EST tomorrow. Very interesting, the press conference is at 03:30EST.




Potential Trade Set-ups For The Week Ahead (Dec 12)

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Dec 11 2011

Hello traders!

Despite some action on the FX market in the past week, provided by the ECB rate decision and EU summit most of the major pairs remained trapped in a range, sideways market. As such, we decided to take look on some FX crosses, such as Eur/Chf and Eur/Aud for potential trade set-ups.

We will pay a very close action to Eur/Chf, which is forming a very nice clean triangle pattern from where we expect a bullish breakout in the coming week. We know that SNB will do everything possible to prevent any gains of the Swiss franc, and if we aso consider the euro zone's latest plan to solve its debt crisis, then this should be supportive for the Eur/Chf! Click on the video below for a technical analysis, which also includes Eur/Usd and S&P500.

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Dollar Index Count

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Dec 09 2011

On dollar index we are still monitoring a corrective, incomplete price action in wave 2, as recovery from Nov 30 appears to be very slow and choppy, so its probably just another corrective leg of wave 2. Our latest interpretation for wave 2 is a flat correction, currently in (b) wave with wave (c) yet to come.



More Strength For Australian dollar

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Dec 07 2011

In the video below we will present a detailed technical analysis for Eur/Aud and Gbp/Aud that was shared with subscribers but now also available to you!




Elliott Wave: More Downside For Usd/Chf From 0.9330 Resistance

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Dec 06 2011

On Usd/CHf we came out with an extended leading diagonal in wave 1) followed by a bearish reversal from 0.9330 at the start of the past week, which appears to be only the first leg of a corrective wave 2) that will most likely move even deeper and show some more complex wave structure. Our primary interpretation is now a flat correction with sub-wave B underway.



On 1h chart we can see that pair is in a recovery mode from 0.9065, and is trading very close to previous highs, which however is not a concern since we are looking for a flat correction in wave 2) as mentioned above. We know that in flat corrections wave B can move into the area of a start of wave A and even beyond that level. So even if 0.9330 is broken, our forecast will remains the same; wave C yet to come!



S&P500 Intra-day; Recovery Not Good For The US dollar

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Dec 01 2011

Traders, price action and momentum are very poor AFTER yesterday explosion after the PBOC cut decision. The FX majors are mostly in intra-day ranges, consolidation patterns from where breakouts will occurs, but most likely with dollar negative reaction. The reason is the S&P500 which shows impulsive but incomplete advance from the lows. In the near-term we will liekly see a pull-back into 1230/35 zone from where we will look for a bounce into a wave (v), when also US dollar short positions shoudl be interesting on the FX market!





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