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Dollar Index: Strong Support Comes In At 81.00

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Dollar index found some support lately but not for long as bounce should be wave (iv), part of incomplete C that still has a room for a decline towards 81.00 projected level. We will be looking for evidences of a low formation in that zone as then we will have five needed waves in C, and we know that after every five waves trend changes at least temporary.





Euro Bund: Downward Correction Is Incomplete

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Euro Bund: Downward Correction Incomplete

Aug 14 2012

We can see that on German bund recovery from 142.13 was corrective; clearly only in three waves. So, if that was a minor contra-trend movement, labeled as wave b, then we know that downtrend on German bund is incomplete. As such, new fall below 142.13 should be seen this week, into wave c, possibly towards 141.00. This fall will then cause more buying on EURUSD. Please check yesterdays video (members only) and Alternate analysis on EURUSD.
So based on current developments its still too soon to look for any EURUSD short opportunities, but that should change once correction on the chart below show us evidences of a bottom.



Crude Oil: Rally Is Corrective

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Aug 09 2012

On crude oil we are observing a corrective rally, which means that larger downtrend, started back in March 2012 remains in play. The price structure is showing a three wave movement from 77 low with a running triangle in wave B. Keep in mind that break out of a triangles are terminal. So, if we are correct, then current strength is wave C is a final leg of a recovery that already reached first resistance around 94.40. We may see even extensions to 96 or even 99 based on Fibonacci projections, which however may not get hit if market reverses lower in impulsive fashion. So all focus should now be on any larger decline. Because if fall will unfold in five waves, let’s say back below $90.50 per barrel, then we will call and confirm a tradeable top of a C wave and will focus on larger downtrend continuation.
Remember, let the price confirm your wave count!




Crude Oil: Top Is Near; Get Ready For Bearish Reversal!

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Aug 08 2012

Oil hit a new high as expected, testing 94.80 area, where wave v) of (v) may find a peak. Notice that RSI is now showing double divergence compared to a price, so weakness really could be in the cards. But again, thats against the trend, dont chase it! We are just observing the price action and still need to see impulsive fall through 92.76 and 91.72 to make sure that bulls are done.




European Session Update

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Aug 01 2012

Markets recovered during the past two sessions or so, but still nothing significant. We are tracking the EURUSD very closely where current bullish price action is still not looking impulsively. Move is slow and its choppy, so we think its corrective wave (b) that will cause selling soon into wave (c). We want that (c) down, which should offer us some long opportunity against 1.2040. Break of 1.2270/80 support should be catalyst for intra-day weakness.



The price action on the S&P and DAX Futures is also very slow, where we expect some deeper levels in fourth waves. Maybe down to 6660 on DAX and 1360 on S&P that will put EURUSD under selling pressure.







Crude Oil Trading Impulsively Lower; Next targets at 86.80 and 86.00

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July 31 2012

Oil fell into a third leg of decline as expected, but with very sharp price action. We know that fast and strongest moves occur in wave three situation of an impulse, which will be confirmed by a base channel break like in our case (circled zone). As such, we are very confident that oil prices are now headed even lower, definitely below July 25 swing. Ideally wave (iii) will slow down at 86.80 and cause a temporary bounce into wave (iv), before another sell-off. Short-term invalidation level is at 89.20 as wave (iv) must not trade into a territory of a wave (iv).






EURUSD: Temporary Recovery Underway; 1.24/1.25

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July 27 2012

EURUSD recovered sharply yesterday through the falling resistance line, connected from early July. This break and more importantly daily close above that line suggests that EURUSD has reached a temporary bottom and that larger recovery, minimum in three waves, is underway. Why in three waves!? Becasue in Elliott Wave theory corrections are subdivided always by at least three legs. In fact, current rally from the lows is clearly impulsive, which represents either wave 1 or A, but in both cases we will be looking higher, towards 1.2400 and 1.2500 in coming days while 1.2040 low is in place.Traders will be looking for long opportunities after wave 2/B pull-back.




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