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AUDUSD Is Sideways But Still Bullish Within Larger Trend

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Mar 20 2013

Pair has reached 1.0375/1.0400 zone last week that we have been focusing on for some time with our clients, but based on the latest wave structure we could see even higher levels on this pair. The reason is the sub-structure in wave C, which is not in five waves yet so bulls could lift the pair to 1.0430 while pair trades above 1.0330 critical level. The next thing is that latest price action in 1.0340-1.0400 range is sideways which is personality of a corrective movement so we suspect it's fourth wave triangle with break higher yet to come into fifth. Critical level remains at 1.0335, because wave four must not trade into a territory of a wave one.



USDCHF Is Looking Bearish Towards 0.9300 Against 0.9566

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Mar 19 2013

USDCHF reversed sharply lower in the past week from 0.9566 peak and also closed on a daily and weekly basis beneath 0.9430 swing. In fact, move from 0.9566 was very sharp so we believe it's only first leg of a minimum three wave decline, labeled as A)-B)-C). Ideally pair is now in wave B) with resistance seen around 0.9500. Breakdown into wave C) towards 0.9340 is expected as long as 0.9566 is in place.

Sentiment table
Current Trend/Sentiment Directional Bias Strategy
Sideways
03/18 We favour shorts as long as 0.9566 critical level holds.











USDJPY Update

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Mar 18 2013
  • Rise Above 95.45/95.70 Puts Pair Back In Bullish Mode
Despite a big gap down on USDJPY pair remains in bullish mode as decline is actually still in three waves which we think it's wave (iv). Notice that wave (iv) is actually testing some interesting levels around 04.30, where we can see an upper line of a base channel as well as 38.2% retracement level compared to wave (iii). With that said, pair could continue higher in this week, but we need to keep a close eye on 95.45/95.70 level. An overlap will confirm the bullish case. Why? Because in such case decline from the top would be a completed three wave fall which is a corrective structure.





USDCAD: Impulsive Trend Could Resume From 1.0200

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Mar 10 2013

USDCAD is trading nicely higher for the past few weeks, which was expected after wave B) pull-back down to 0.9800 support at the end of 2012. We know that after completed correction the market will make an impulsive price action, and that is exactly what we are tracking now in wave C); five wave rally in wave C), which is still incomplete. For now we have only three waves up to 1.0340 so more gains to come after current wave 4 pull-back that could test 1.0200 level next week, before uptrend resumes. Critical level is at 1.0100. Why? Because wave four must not make an overlap with wave one.

Sentiment table
Current Trend/Sentiment Directional Bias Strategy
Up Wait on deeper fourth wave pull-back 1.0200 and then look for longs.








USDCHF Update II: Corrective Reversal Could Reach 0.9390

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Mar 08 2013

USDCHF broke higher in this week as expected into wave 5 of 3) that found resistance just beneath 0.9500 mark. A reversal from that high is quite strong so we think it's part of a deeper pull-back but still only a corrective retracement. We are talking about red wave 4) that could reach levels around 0.9390 before uptrend resumes. 0.9390 was also a swing low of wave four of one lesser degree, then we also see there a 38.2% retracement Fibo support and around these levels wave 4) distance would equal to wave 2). As such it's worth to keep an eye on 0.9390 level that could cause a bounce.

Sentiment table

Current Trend/Sentiment Directional Bias Strategy
Up
03/08 Waiting on wave 4) pull-back







 
 

AUDUSD: Reversal Pattern Is Pointing Towards 1.0375

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Mar 07 2013

Sharp impulsive reversal higher in this week suggests that AUDUSD found a temporary low and completed an ending diagonal in wave 5 with a throw-over formation. Throw-over occurs when volume is high in the fifth wave that approaches its lower trendline of the pattern, and extends slightly beneath it before reversal occurs. As such, the wave count is now pointing higher for a minimum three waves retracement back to former black wave four levels; 1.0375.

Pair also tested and reverse lower from blue wave (iv) resistance yesterday that caused a current a pull-back in wave B that will ideally look for a support around 1.0200 area. Expect a wave C rise from those levels, while pair trades above 1.0115 invalidation level.






USDCHF: Minor Pull-back Within Uptrend

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Mar 06 2013

USDCHF accelerated higher at the end of the last week slightly through the upper channel resistance line which is a bullish signal for the pair. As such, we are now observing a new Elliott wave count with possible impulsive rally underway to 0.9500 area while 0.9335 is not breached. Notice that current pull-back from the latest high is quite slow which is usually an important sign for a corrective wave pattern. As such this pull-back could represent wave 4 in the middle of ongoing wave 3) that could reach 261.8% extension level of wave 2).

Sentiment Table

Current Trend/Sentiment Directional Bias Strategy
Up
03/06 We favour longs as long 0.9335 critical level is not breached








 

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