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USDJPY Update

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Mar 18 2013
  • Rise Above 95.45/95.70 Puts Pair Back In Bullish Mode
Despite a big gap down on USDJPY pair remains in bullish mode as decline is actually still in three waves which we think it's wave (iv). Notice that wave (iv) is actually testing some interesting levels around 04.30, where we can see an upper line of a base channel as well as 38.2% retracement level compared to wave (iii). With that said, pair could continue higher in this week, but we need to keep a close eye on 95.45/95.70 level. An overlap will confirm the bullish case. Why? Because in such case decline from the top would be a completed three wave fall which is a corrective structure.





USDCAD: Impulsive Trend Could Resume From 1.0200

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Mar 10 2013

USDCAD is trading nicely higher for the past few weeks, which was expected after wave B) pull-back down to 0.9800 support at the end of 2012. We know that after completed correction the market will make an impulsive price action, and that is exactly what we are tracking now in wave C); five wave rally in wave C), which is still incomplete. For now we have only three waves up to 1.0340 so more gains to come after current wave 4 pull-back that could test 1.0200 level next week, before uptrend resumes. Critical level is at 1.0100. Why? Because wave four must not make an overlap with wave one.

Sentiment table
Current Trend/Sentiment Directional Bias Strategy
Up Wait on deeper fourth wave pull-back 1.0200 and then look for longs.








USDCHF Update II: Corrective Reversal Could Reach 0.9390

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Mar 08 2013

USDCHF broke higher in this week as expected into wave 5 of 3) that found resistance just beneath 0.9500 mark. A reversal from that high is quite strong so we think it's part of a deeper pull-back but still only a corrective retracement. We are talking about red wave 4) that could reach levels around 0.9390 before uptrend resumes. 0.9390 was also a swing low of wave four of one lesser degree, then we also see there a 38.2% retracement Fibo support and around these levels wave 4) distance would equal to wave 2). As such it's worth to keep an eye on 0.9390 level that could cause a bounce.

Sentiment table

Current Trend/Sentiment Directional Bias Strategy
Up
03/08 Waiting on wave 4) pull-back







 
 

AUDUSD: Reversal Pattern Is Pointing Towards 1.0375

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Mar 07 2013

Sharp impulsive reversal higher in this week suggests that AUDUSD found a temporary low and completed an ending diagonal in wave 5 with a throw-over formation. Throw-over occurs when volume is high in the fifth wave that approaches its lower trendline of the pattern, and extends slightly beneath it before reversal occurs. As such, the wave count is now pointing higher for a minimum three waves retracement back to former black wave four levels; 1.0375.

Pair also tested and reverse lower from blue wave (iv) resistance yesterday that caused a current a pull-back in wave B that will ideally look for a support around 1.0200 area. Expect a wave C rise from those levels, while pair trades above 1.0115 invalidation level.






USDCHF: Minor Pull-back Within Uptrend

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Mar 06 2013

USDCHF accelerated higher at the end of the last week slightly through the upper channel resistance line which is a bullish signal for the pair. As such, we are now observing a new Elliott wave count with possible impulsive rally underway to 0.9500 area while 0.9335 is not breached. Notice that current pull-back from the latest high is quite slow which is usually an important sign for a corrective wave pattern. As such this pull-back could represent wave 4 in the middle of ongoing wave 3) that could reach 261.8% extension level of wave 2).

Sentiment Table

Current Trend/Sentiment Directional Bias Strategy
Up
03/06 We favour longs as long 0.9335 critical level is not breached








 

EURUSD Broke 2012 Support Line; Can This Be Start of a Major Sell-off?!

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Mar 04 2013

Recently we were tracking a possible corrective decline from 1.3700 on EURUSD because of the overlapping structure. However, sharp and extended fall through 2012 support line with a weekly and monthly close price beneath it forced us to rework the count. In fact, we decided to check the line chart, where fall is pretty clean and directional. Move can be counted impulsively which that’s s bearish sign for the pair, but we expect a three wave bounce back to 1.3300 in March, before downtrend extends.

EURUSD daily- line chart


EURUSD weekly


The reason why we also turned bearish on EURUSD is the overlay chart below which shows that most of other correlated markets turned lower, but not S&P which is still bullish but alone. This could be a sign and S&P is approaching to its top. If this proves correct and if S&P will turn lower from 1560-1600 then USD will probably accelerate sharply which is already showing strength without any S&P help.

Market Correlations





USD -Index: Testing 61.8% Fibo Of July - September 2012 Move

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Feb 27 2013

USD index recovered very sharply last week but don't let the strong rally trick you. The fact is that current sharp leg up could easily be wave C) of a flat correction in wave (B) which is unfolding already since September 2012. In fact, price is approaching to some very interesting resistance zone around 81.70-82.00 (61.8% Fibo) where bulls could slow down. As such, larger trend for this market remains down, but only impulsive weakness from that resistance and back to 80.30 figure can confirm the bearish case. In such case we will look for a fall through wave (A) supports. In fact on a weekly chart below we are also observing a huge head and shoulders pattern while 84.00 level is not breached.





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