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EURUSD: Support-line Is Broken- Watch Out For A Sell-off

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April 18 2013

EURUSD reversed sharply lower yesterday from 1.3200, clearly in impulsive fashion beneath rising trend-line from 1.2745 and as well as wave B) swing low. This is a very clear bearish price action that should send prices even lower in minimum three waves, possibly to 1.2900/1.2950 in the next few trading days. Meanwhile pair must not get back above 1.3200 critical level but could see a pull-back to 1.3110 where broken trend-line may become a resistance.


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AUDUSD Turns Bearish After A Daily Close Beneath March Trend-line

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April 17 2013

AUDUSD turned sharply lower and made a daily close beneath rising trend-line connected from March lows. We also need to consider that decline from 1.0580 is looking impulsive; strong and large move in a very short period of time. As such, this leg must be part of a larger bearish sequence that should unfold minimum in three waves. Ideally we will see a zig-zag down in wave (Y) of a complex wave E as shown on the updated count. In the very near-term traders who are interested to join the bearish trend may want to keep an eye on that broken trend-line that may turn into a resistance around 1.0420.



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NZDJPY Looks Bearish Against 86.40

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Apr 16 2013

European shares and US pre-market has been trading higher for the last couple of hours and caused some downside on USD and JPY. Earlier we mentioned to our members that we will keep them updated regarding the JPY pairs as there could be some trading opportunity in the near future based on bearish S&P sentiment. Below we have NZDJPY chart where decline can be counted impulsively, so current rally should prove corrective. We would love to be short on that one, but we need three legs up from 80.54. Current minor five wave rally in red labels represents wave (a) of a zig-zag, so more sideways and even upside price action to come.

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CRUDE OIL UPDATE II: Corrective Pull-back Within Downtrend

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Apr 16 2013

Oil prices found a support around $86 per barrel after five waves down in wave 3 followed by a rally out of an impulse channel which confirms the idea of a completed wave 3 and wave 4 pull-back in progress. We will be tracking a three wave rise in wave 4 back to $89-$90 resistance area before price once again breaks lower, this time through $86 per barrel and possibly towards $84 support from November 2012. 




Crude Oil: Correction Appears Complete; Weakness Could Extend To 90$ Per Barrel

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Apr 12 2013

Oil recovered nicely in the last few days from 91.80 back to 94.75 which was expected after a completed five wave pattern down. We were tracking a corrective bounce in the last few days which has unfolded very nicely and stopped at 94.75, almost on a tick at wave four resistance of one lesser degree. Notice that market reversed sharply lower few sessions back after completed double zig-zag. Fall us clearly in impulsive fashion which has also extended through the lower side of a corrective channel. This is a clear bearish signal for further weakness on oil prices, this time towards and through 91.80 support followed by $90-psycho level. New critical invalidation level is now at 94.75.




AUDUSD Turns Back In Bullish Mode As Price Exceeds 1.0500

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Apr 10 2013

AUDUSD moved through 1.0500 swings which mean that wave II pull-back is complete and that larger uptrend is back in progress again. Rise from 1.0346 can be counted impulsively so we believe that AUDUSD will move much higher in the next few days, maybe even weeks if we consider a possible wave III rise even up to 1.0740 Fibonacci extension level. However, we always tend to focus on minimum expectations so we expect to see 1.0600 as a first target (1.618 x wave II). But before that level is seen pair could make a corrective retracement in blue wave (2) back to 1.0450/60 support zone. But pair however, remains in bullish mode as long as 1.0346 holds.

adu


S&P500 Found A Support And Now Looking Back To New High

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Apr 09 2013

S&P500 fell sharply lower on Friday, but only into third leg down from 1573 top. Decline from the top is labeled as an a)-b)-c) which is a corrective pull-back, called a zig-zag. This is a bullish pattern which means that uptrend could resume while 1540 is not breached, especially if we consider that recovery from latest swing low is already showing impulsive qualities. The next thing is that we want to stay with a larger trend, which is clear up on stocks, so push back to the highs should not be a surprise.




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