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USD Index Could Make A Corrective Bounce

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Oct 08 2013

On Friday we mentioned to our members that downside on USD Index is limited which has proved correct as prices are already recovering from latest low. In fact, recovery is not a surprise after five waves of decline, bullish RSI divergence plus an ending diagonal placed in wave (v). These are all important pieces that put USD index in a recovery mode, for a minimum three wave rally. This three wave rally, in (a)-(b)-(c) structure can reach 80.73 figure which was wave four swing high.





German Dax: Temporary Correction Within Uptrend

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Sep 26 2013

German DAX futures are in bullish move since start of September, showing an impulsive price action. Impulse is a five wave pattern so we expect more upside as current decline from the highs appears to be only a fourth wave, a temporary contra-trend movement. For now, we don't see a completed pull-back yet, but market could find a support around 8510-8570 region where we see an open gap. Those gaps could react as a reversal, in our case as a support in wave 4 for a bounce back up into wave 5. Targets for wave 5 would then be around 8860 where we see a 200% extension of a previous decline from 8460 to 8090 in August.





EURUSD: Bullish Impulsive Structure

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Sep 19 2013

Traders, I am observing a new very interesting bullish count for the EURUSD. I am tracking an impulsive move which has room for much higher levels and reason for this view is very simple; I just want to get involved if those breakouts and current direction (weak USD) is for real. With that said, I will keep an eye on pull-backs; that would be wave iv) that could start unfolding from around 1.3520-1.3585 wave iii) resistance area. If this count is correct, then EURUSD should make a daily close around current levels (1.3500) or higher. Patience!



A broken support line on a weekly USD Index chart is the main reason why we favour USD Shorts at the moment.





GOLD: Triangle Pattern Is Pointing Lower

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Sep 17 2013

GOLD has turned bearish last week and made a sharp decline towards 1300 with a personality of an impulsive price action; strong and large move in the short period of time. As such, we believe that metal is in a new bearish period which could bring price even back to June lows. We will be looking lower as long as 1434 is in place. With that said, to take advantage of the current down move it’s important to keep an eye on intra-day wave patterns and any evidences of a corrective or contra-trend patterns that will give you an opportunity to join the trend.

Well, on the hourly we see a sideways movement in tight range which is a very important guideline for a correction, or temporary pause within downtrend. From an Elliott Wave perspective we see current pause as a triangle which is a continuation pattern, most likely placed in wave four. As such, we anticipate trust out of a triangle into wave (v) that could reach levels around 1280 in the next 24-48 hours once 1300 support is taken out.



TRIANGLE-BASIC STRUCTURE

A Triangle is a common 5 wave pattern labeled A-B-C-D-E that moves counter-trend and is corrective in nature. Triangles move within two channel lines drawn from waves A to C, and from waves B to D. A Triangle is either contracting or expanding depending on whether the channel lines are converging or expanding. Triangles are overlapping five wave affairs that subdivide 3-3-3-3-3.



• structure is 3-3-3-3-3
• each subwave of a triangle is ussaly a zig-zag
• wave E must end in the price territory of wave A
• one subwave of a triangle usually has a much more complex structure than others subwaves
• appears in wave four in an impulse, wave B in an A-B-C, wave X or wave Y in a double threes, wave X or wave Z in a triple threes


Join Our Team

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Sep 12 2013

Do you know Elliott Wave analysis in detail? Do you know how to label the chart in real time with the highest probability of a success? Do you know how to use it when it comes to trading? If your answer is yes, then you could become a new member of our team.

We are seeking for market analyst who understands the wave principle as well as other general technical analysis (candlesticks, trend-lines, indicators etc.). Analyst also must be familiar with basics of financial markets, correlations and economic indicators.

If you think you are the right person for this job then we kindly ask you to prepare two different articles. Each article should contain approximately 200 words and minimum one chart and send them to info@ew-forecast.com.  You can also send us some past ariticels or videos for a review; don't need to write a new one.

Person also must have ability to analyze the markets in video format or running an on-line webinars and presentations.

Please do not forget to include your bio.

Kind regards,

Grega

EURUSD Could Be Forming A Major Turning Point

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Sep 03 2013

EURUSD is trading nicely lower for the last week or so which could be start of a new larger impulsive bearish trend. However, decline from 1.3450 is actually still in three waves so corrective outlook must not be ignored but we will stay with current sentiment and focus on the bearish scenario as long as 1.3400 holds. Ideally market is now in the middle of an impulsive wave 3, and broken support channel line (blue circled zone on 4h chart) is important evidence for this count, because this breakout usually causes an acceleration that makes wave three the longest and sharpest wave. Downside projections for wave 3 are at 1.3130 and 1.3040.



On a daily chart we can see that EURUSD has been in uptrend mode almost all summer from 1.2750, but recovery has a corrective look. With that said, we think that move is complex correction, probably a flat and that larger trend will continue lower, especially if we consider a five wave decline from 1.3700 at the start of the year. Keep in mind that impulses show direction of a larger trend, which in our case it means down. If we are correct then latest bullish leg represents wave C) of a three wave pull-back that is already showing some evidences of a top at 1.3450. We however still need a larger impulsive weakness towards 1.3000 to confirm the end point of wave (2). If pair can do that, then EURUSD will be ready for a sharp fall in the rest of the year, probably to 1.2500 if not lower.



On a weekly chart we are also tracking a huge head and shoulder pattern where right shoulder could already be finished, so weakness is expected towards the neckline.








Gold: Recovery Could Be Underway Back To 1348

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Aug 09 2013

GOLD is in recovery mode for few weeks now and it seems that current price action could move even higher in the next few days if we consider a broken trend line of latest five wave decline which suggest that impulsive move from 1680 is complete. Usually when market is in reversal mode the price will retrace back to the territory of a former wave four. In our case that comes in at 1394-1400 level that could be tested in the next two weeks.



On the 4h chart we can see that price made a sharp reversal yesterday and closed on a daily basis above the upper line of a downward trading channel. A break suggests that corrective move from 1348 has already bottomed and that market is now forming a continuation pattern within larger uptrend, from 1180.






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