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Bullish Pattern On Bund Suggests Limited Upside For EURUSD

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Feb 26 2014

Today we will look at German Bunds and help with this market to figure out the next possible move for the EURUSD. On the 4h chart of German Bund (Mar 2014) I see a triangle in progress that suggests higher prices once the pattern is complete. Triangle is a continuation, a five wave pattern labeled with A-B-C-D-E subwaves, where each leg is made by three legs. So far this looks nice so we can assume that market will turn up after wave E pullback down to 143.40-143.80 ideal support area. The big question is how will this impact the EURUSD?! Well, on the overlay chart we see a negative correlation between EURUSD and BUNDS, so if BUNDS will continue higher, then EURUSD should find resistance and turn bearish. We see technical resistance on EURUSD coming in around 1.3800.

German Bunds (Mar 2014) 4h



EURUSD vs Bunds 2h




Triangle On Silver Is Pointing Higher

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Feb 24 2014

Silver has turned bullish in February with nice impulsive personality. However, nothing moves in straight line; and the same is on silver as prices slowed down after touching $22.00. Notice that metal is trading sideways for the past week or so. A range-bound or a sideways move at the top of the trend usually represents only a corrective pause within ongoing trend. On silver we see a triangle placed in wave (iv) which is a continuation pattern. A break of $22 may open door for 22.50/22.70 area.








Stocks Rally; Seeking Longs On Yen Crosses

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Feb 12 2014

The US stocks once again moved nicely to the upside, so I am already wondering if maybe we have seen a completed correction at 1732 on the S&P500 and if market is already heading up to new all-time highs again . At the same time we can also see that some commodities are following stocks, while the FX is surprisingly very slow and not responding much to other markets. Even USDJPY is lagging for the last few 24-48 hours which is tracking the S&P500 quite nicely.

S&P500 vs USDJPY 4h


With bullish stocks and USDJPY we still think that opportunities are on the short side of Japanese yen against the other currencies. However, we would need some pullback on Yen-crosses before we may look for any trading candidates in the risk-on environment. A pullback could unfold soon if we consider that the S&P is in final stages of an impulsive rally. I can count five waves up from 1732, so we may see a downward correction in the rest of the week. A set-back on stocks would then most likely cause also a pullback on Yen pairs. Short-term resistance on the S&P futures is at 1820-1830

S&P500 (Mar 2014) 1h


EURJPY is showing nice five waves from the lows, so maybe wave B retracement back to 138.10/90 area will offer some long entries.

EURJPY 4h

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Elliott Waves For USDCAD: Downward Correction

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Feb 07 2014

USDCAD has turned south last week from around 1.1220 where we see signs of a completed wave (v) of 3 with an ending diagonal formation at the end of extended move that typically confirms a bearish reversal. As such, we suspect that pair is now moving down in corrective black wave 4 that may reach 1.0940 area that comes in around 38.2% Fibonacci level near former wave (iv). Corrections are three wave patterns, so looks like pair will stay sideways or bearish for few more days. We see wave (b) now unfolding with wave (c) yet to come. We would be interested in longs once wave 4 will show us evidences of a completed set-back.

4h chart



EURUSD; Bearish Price Action In Progress

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Jan 31 2014

The EURUSD has turned down from above 1.3700 area where we labeled end of an expanded flat formation that now shows signs of completion after sharp fall down to 1.3500. Current decline is showing signs of an impulsive price action so we suspect that EURUSD is heading much lower. Trend is down as long as 1.3683 remains in place.



Jan 14 Video Analysis Click here





USDCAD Daily: Bullish Impulse

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Jan 29 2014

USDCAD is moving nicely to the upside, most likely trading higher within impulsive structure after recent strong and sharp extended move up from 1.0580. Based on the personality of the move and acceleration after break out of the base channel, we suspect that pair is in wave three of three, typically the strongest wave in the sequence. However, we see some Fibonacci levels at 1.1200 and 1.1380 zone where pair may find a temporary resistance, but only temporary for a pullback down in black wave 4 to that base channel where upper trendline may cause a new leg up on the pair.






S&P500: Uptrend Could Slowdown In February

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Jan 20 2014

S&P500 reversed back to new all time highs recently after completed corrective retracement at 1754 in mid-December which was wave (iv) within larger wave 3. As such, price is now moving up in wave (v), final leg of a five wave move that could stop at 1850-1880 projected Fibonacci zone. From that region we expect a deeper retracement back in another fourth wave, but of a higher degree. We are talking about black wave 4 that could get underway in February.



Jan 14 Video Analysis









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