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EURUSD: How To Spot Intraday Reversal

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May 16 2014


How we identified a short-term reversal/suppport zone on EURUSD after sharp drop of more than 300 pips!?
  • With the Elliott Wave model; fifth wave down suggested a bounce in price
  • Triangle pattern; it occurs prior to the final wave in the pattern of one larger degree, so we knew that downside has been imited
  • Fibonacci levels and triangle measurement helped us to project end of a fifth wave
   







Crude Oil: The Wave Pattern Is Pointing Lower

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May 08 2014


Crude Oil has turned bearish in mid-April when we called a bearish reversal after a very high but still only a three wave rally from 96.40 to 104. Notice that from that high market fell down in five waves through the support line connected from March lows. This five wave decline and breakout confirms the bearish trend that may resume very soon as rally from 98.70 also unfolded in three legs, very close to that broken line that can turn into the first resistance area at 100.50-101.00 zone; the second one is at 101.50-102.10. With that said, we believe that sooner or later crude will continue to the downside

Elliott Wave Clear Pattern Set-up Formula:


Three wave rally + impulsive sell-off + channel break + pull-back to support line that becomes resistance line= Downtrend Continuation







USDJPY Again Turning Bearish Following The NFP

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May 05 2014


US stocks were firstly trading higher after better than expected NFP but then we have seen a pullback into the Friday's close on tensions in Ukraine. US yields also feel sharply following the NFP which is also causing a downside pressure on stocks. Below we have a chart of 10 year US yields where we can see that price close out side of the 3-month range that could lead to lower prices in May.

US yields daily


If yields will continue to the downside then stocks and especially the USDJPY will be moving south as well. In fact, we were looking for a bearish reversal from 103.00 on USDJPY and we got it on Friday. In fact a reversal is looking strong so ideally it’s start of a larger decline.

Very interesting is also a comparison of USDJPY waves to the reaction following the NFP back from March and April when pair fell sharply, so we would not be surprised to see something similar now at the start of May. A bearish head and shoulders pattern is suggesting the same. We are tracking this pair very closely for EPO.

USDJPY H&S and NFP





EURUSD Intraday Analysis

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Apr 29 2014

EURUSD is turning down from the "GAP Zone" after release of softer than forecast Germany inflation data. There is room for more weakness and test of 1.3784. It looks like price will remains sideways for a few more days.





E-mini S&P In Corrective Retracement

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April 25 2014

Good day to everyone!
With members we are looking at two wave counts on the S&P. We see prices now in corrective short-term pullback after sharp intraday reversal yesterday from 1882. Based on both wave counts there is room for decline to 1855 level where we will turn bullish again and look for a potential long opportunity.

S&P Futures Counts #1 and #2







US Stocks Down and JPY Up After NFP; More to Come

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April 07 2014

Morning traders! I hope that you had a great and relaxing weekend as markets can be very interesting in this week after strong sell-off on US stocks on Friday, after the US jobs report. We see markets in risk-off mode, but interesting despite strong move down on stocks USD did not move much to the upside. We have seen a strong upward reaction on US Notes and German Bund market while stocks were falling which was ideal for lower USDJPY and Yen crosses.
Market Correlation 30min

 

Now the question that is probably going through your head right now is “if this risk-off will stay here or no?” Well I believe in technical picture of the market swings. So if we take a look on the S&P then we can see five waves to the downside from 1892 down to Mar 30 gap. Decline is impulsive, thus it’s part of ongoing weakness, so we will be looking for more weakness after any short-term three wave rally. This three wave rally may occur soon if we respect gap levels that usual react as reversal zone.
E-mini S&P500 1h
 


So if we respect the bearish picture of the S&P then we may also consider a bearish continuation on USDJPY and even take advantage of intermarket analysis. A decline there has also unfolded in impulsive fashion, so we may consider shorts with our members in the next 24-48 trading hours.




GBPUSD: Bullish Development

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April 01 2014

GBPUSD found the support last week and recovered nicely above the upper trend line of a downward channel. A reversal from the low can be counted in five waves on the intraday charts, so we suspect that trend has changed and that pound will continue to the upside, especially after a corrective retracement back to 1.6550/70 that could unfold in the next few sessions.






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