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USD Index Update II.
May 29 2020
A few days back I recorded a video and mentioned that USD index can break out of a bearish triangle. Well, we have seen a very nice move down in the last few days, so it appears that dollar weakness is here. Ideally the breakdown we see is coming out of a bearish triangle in wave B, so current weakness is part of wave C that can stop in the 97.50 - 96.50 support zone around important 61,8% - 78,6% Fibonacci retracement , or maybe even at 95.00 area if weakness becomes extended. However, we should be aware of a reversal from that area, ideally in five waves which would then be confirmation that dollar is again waking up. Maybe any dollar strength will be the case as »safe-haven«, when stocks come down from resistance.
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Have a good weekend!
May 27 Video Analysis:
USD Index Testing Triangle Support Line (VIDEO)
May 27 2020
in this video I will talk about some of the markets I covered recently on our twitter profile. I will look into very important PUT/CALL Ratio chart which may suggests that stocks are approaching resistance. I will also look at crude oil, USD Index and pound.
The EW-forecast team
GBTC Can Be Forming A Bullish Triangle - Elliott Wave
May 26 2020
Today we will talk about GBTC - Grayscale Bitcoin Investment Trust from Elliott Wave perspective, which is telling us where Crypto investors are hiding.
GBTC came to the upper triangle line in a recent rise, in three waves (A-B-C), therefore recovery can be corrective, ideally a bigger wave (d) structure, especially if we consider a triangle in sub-wave B in the middle. Now we are observing another three-wave (A-B-C) decline, probably down to 8.0 - 6.0 support zone for final wave (e) where a big bullish triangle may come to an end. That being said, watch out for limited gains here at intraday highs, because a bigger decline into a deeper correction can be around the corner, and the same can be with BTCUSD and ALTcoins. Later we can expect the real bull run, when everyone will be very bearish again.
Be humble and trade smart.
Bitcoin Cash Can Bounce From Lower Supports - Elliott Wave analysis
May 18 2020
Crtyptocurrenices have turned nicely higher in the last two months and some of them even in five waves. At the same time, we also noticed that crpytocurrenices bounced with the stockmarket which is important as general view, "if fear is involved or no". It looks like fear is gone now, if we consider how high stocks bounced, so cryptocurrency traders also feel more confident now and probably expecting more upside.
Well, some coins bounced in five waves from March lows, and bitcoin cash is one of them. We know that five wave structure represents the trend, so this bullish trend is expected to continue, but after corrective set-back is finished. Nice support zone comes in at 200, followed by 160/180 zone. Invalidation level is at March low.
NASDAQ100 Is Back In Uptrend, But Pullback Can be Close
May 12 2020
Can you imagine that NASDAQ100 is already at that February gap? I remember very well, when we were talking about that possibility back in March, when everyone were extremely bearish, so market did the opposite; straight up to the gap or even ATH is now possible before deep pullback occurs. Price is now in the area where everyone will realize the market is bullish again, but again it appears they can be to late. When majority "goes in" with sentiment in positive zone, the turn is close.
Keep in mind that when a pullback occurs, be aware of a three wave set-back. In ideal formation we will see a zigzag, structured by A-B-C legs, which could be actually a new opportunity to join the market, before prices resumes even higher.
Trade well, Grega
Impulse, followed by a three-wave correction:
EURNZD Looking Bearish
May 05 2020
EURNZD made a big, overlapping drop but still in five waves from 1.993 high, thus suggesting that trend is changing to bearish, for a minimum three-wave larger move. We see a completed Elliott wave leading diagonal in wave A)/1) at 1.765 level, from where price started rallying on lower degree time frames. Ideally an A-B-C correction of wave B)/2) is underway now, and can face first potential resistance and reversal later around 1.85 level (Fib. ratio of 38.2). But because price unfolded an Elliott wave leading diagonal in the first leg, the correction can be deeper, and price can reach even the 1.914 level (Fib. ratio of 61.8) before bears takes over. In any case, further weakness for a third wave of a decline will be expected once current correction fully develops.
At the same time it's good to highlight that New Zealand has been fight coronavirus quite well compare to some other countries, so economy may pick up faster than maybe in some other regions, Europe per example. The employment figures will be very important in upcoming months, and we think that they can be better compared to EU so EURNZD may see weakness, but ideally from higher/better resistance price.
When diagonal triangles occur in the fifth or C wave position, they take the 3-3-3-3-3 shape that Elliott described. However, it has recently come to light that a variation on this pattern occasionally appears in the first wave position of impulses and in the A wave position of zigzags. The characteristic overlapping of waves one and four and the convergence of boundary lines into a wedge shape remain as in the ending diagonal triangle. However, the subdivisions are different, tracing out a 5-3-5-3-5 pattern. These diagonal triangles are called leading diagonals.
An example of an Elliott wave leading diagonal:
The Elliott Wave Look Of Crude Oil
April 27 2020
Since 2019, I have been tracking a very bearish and incomplete Elliott Wave pattern on crude weekly and monthly charts. We saw room for a decline down from $65-$70 resistance towards $20 per barrel as recovery from 2016 low has clearly been acting as a correction. A drop has come true much quicker than we thought which is a good thing as it means that new opportunities for investors may not be far away. We see a price decline to 1998 levels ideally with fifth wave that can be final part of a corrective A-B-C structure from 2008 highs. We have all needed sub-waves to complete this downtrend soon, the only thing that is still missing is a bounce in five waves on a lower time frame to confirm a potential reversal, even if just temporary. A rise in five waves back above $27 will indicate further upside, possibly towards the upper side of a trading channel, near $50.
Crude oil, monthly
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