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Elliott Wave Analysis On BTCUSD (VIDEO)

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Nov 24 2020

Hello traders!

BTCUSD is trading close to all-time highs and after recent strong rise within a wave III, seems like ATH is going to be taken out before we will see a slow down into a higher degree wave IV correction. Currently we are tracking wave (5) of 5 of III that can stop around 20k area and from where longer and deeper pullback may occur.

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Gold Is Coming Into Strong Support Area

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Nov 19 2020

Hello traders!

Gold is in consolidation mode since August, but we see price now approaching strong technical support. The daily technical chart is showing us that gold always breaks 100SMA before the uptrend resumes and if we consider the same wavelength as in March, then we should keep an eye on support around 1800 level.

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Gold Technical, Daily


If we take a look at the 4h chart and its wave structure from the Elliott Wave perspective, we can see a bigger, bearish triangle pattern in wave B of a higher degree wave IV), so watch out for another decline to projected support around 1800 level for a wave C, ideally once the final wave E of B fully unfolds.

Gold, 4h


We believe that gold may find support somewhere at the end of the year, which means that we can expect a bullish continuation back to the highs for a wave V) at the end of 2020 or at the beginning of 2021.
 
 

DAX Is Bullish again, But More Gains After A Short-Term Pullback

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Nov 17 2020


DAX made nice and impulsive bounce from projected support after we noticed a three-wave A-B-C corrective decline, so it's turning back to a bullish mode, mainly because of recent break above trendline.

However, watch out for a temporary short-term pullback to fill that open GAP, which can actually retest that daily trendline with potential support around 12300 level. In fact, if current 13300/13400 zone will also hold as a resistance, then we may see a potential inverted H&S pattern, where right shoulder is still missing.

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Aud Can Do Better Than Nzd In Risk-on

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Nov 06 2020


Commodity currencies have been in a pullback in the last two months, as risk-on trend started slowing down due to higher coronavirus cases and second lockdowns. Australian dollar lost more of the value than NZD when comparing it to USD, but that's normal correlation it seems as shown at AUDNZD vs SP500 chart below. Or, in other-words, AUDUSD can be also much better trade on the long side than NZDUSD when market is positioned for risk-on. So that's one way how to play it, or you just simply go with AUDNZD pair in risk-on, which may not be a bad idea if we consider that there can be some divergence between central banks. Keep in mind that RBA said they will not move to negative rates, while RBNZ it can, so this makes bullish case for the pair which is even more interesting if we consider that stocks can be turning back to ATH following recent bounce.

The AUDNZD pair looks very interesting from a technical perspective as well as it can be finishing a deep three-wave pullback after recent bounce away from the lower parallel trendline support and daily 200SMA. A confirmation, of a bullish resumption would be a break out of a downward channel that can lead to more gains, and potential opportunities on the way up.

Personally, I will also pay attention to AUDUSD as well next week. More about this one in some other article.

I wish you a lovely weekend.
GH

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Is Risk On Back? Video Analysis

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Nov 05 2020

We have seen nice bounce on stocks while the USD has turned lower, which suggests more risk-on in weeks ahead.

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Elliott Wave Charts Suggests: “After the storm the sun shines again”

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Nov 03 2020

Traders, with Forex Analytix team we put together blog post 2020 US Presidential Elections and Possible Market Outcomes. I also shared some of my charts and analysis there, a piece that is shared below. For full post click here

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Elliott Wave Charts Suggests: “After the storm the sun shines again”

It appears that Libya’s decisions regarding the increase of oil output was just another catalyst that sent oil prices lower last Friday. It’s just one of the issues that energy is facing; much more important is of course a spread of global lockdowns so demand is decreasing significantly in the last two weeks which causes a sell-off into wave C of the Elliott Wave pattern when looking at the price action down from September highs. Well, we see a very strong, three-leg drop for now, but “after every storm the sun shines again”, so despite a very aggressive sell-off we believe that oil is approaching an interesting area of supports. I am watching $34 as a first potential support but I realize that lockdowns may not end anytime soon so the $30.00 can prove to be an even more important level. Ideally energy will make a five wave bounce from there which is needed to call the end of the correction. I suspect oil prices will be back in recovery mode at the start of next year.

Similarly with energy we also see a sharp drop in stocks with the SP500 reversing south into a wave C as well. A good support for this market is the area around 3100-3250, so maybe we are going to see the first evidence of a bounce right after the US elections. We know that some may be looking for a 3rd wave sell-off rather than wave C, which is fine and could be a valid view, but I personally think that it’s always better to label the wave count in the direction of a trend, which is clearly up on higher time frame charts.

Last but not least, gold is another very interesting asset that will always be on any investor’s watchlist, especially during unstable periods like the one we are facing now. With QE in full force, I think metals still have plenty of room to rise. From an Elliott wave point of view I see gold in a corrective fourth wave pullback that can stop at around $1800, where the price retracement would be equal to the one we saw back in March, slightly below 100 SMA.





 
 
 
 

More Cases In US and Less In Autralia Can Send AUDUSD Up

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Nov 02 2020

Australia records zero Covid-19 cases for the first time in five months, while we see lock-downs in EU and more cases each day now also in the US. As such, it seems that AUD will have room to recover, and maybe that's going to be soon if may stocks will find a support after the US elections, especially if Trump wins.

From an Elliott Wave perspective we see AUDUSD making a corrective pullback, now already at first 0.7 support but second and even more important one is at 0.68 if pullback is deeper.
 
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