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AUD/USD: Corrective Recovery From 0.9720

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On a 4h chart we can see a nice five waves of decline from the most recent highs, established at 1.0175 region. As such, an upward reaction from the 0.9723 region is actually not a surprise as we know that a corrective pull-back always follows when five wave, impulsive move completes.

With this being said, Aud/Usd should reach levels around 0.9950 and parity level, in a three wave A-B-C formation before we may look on the short side of this pair again. We will focus on a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level where a potential reversal from a wave 2)/B) may offer a nice opportunity for deeper levels, while top around 1.0175 must be hold!

Aud/Usd 4h chart:




Dollar Index: "Temporary Top"

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Nov 22 2010

Risk is on today (higher stocks) on news of Ireland's bailout package, which however is still not fully confirmed. Stocks may easily trade even higher today and push the US dollar even lower against the majors, since we know that higher stock are positive correlated with the Eur/Usd, Gbp/Usd, Aud/Usd... A current trend is also confirmed by a bullish price action, five waves up on Euro and five down on Dollar Index, but we should see corrective pull-back against these moves, before trend will be able to continue.

A five wave of decline on Dollar Index from the most recent high suggests that temporary top has been established. As such, we will look for at least one more push lower, once we will be able to identify a corrective wave B.

Dollar Index 1h chart:




Eur/Usd Video

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Nov 24 2010

US dollar gained sharply in recent sessions as North and South Korea exchanged artillery fire and pushed the risky assets lower. Eur/Usd is testing levels around the 1.3300 August highs and also a weekly support line connected from June lows, where a breakout will signal for more losses in coming weeks, down towards the 1.2600 and even lower.

In our free Elliott wave video we will show you our weekly, daily and Intra-day expectation for the Eur/Usd.



Gold 4h chart

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Dec 01 2010

Gold is trading higher for the past few days, but an upward structure from 1329 lows is showing signs of a corrective recovery after the trend changed direction on 9th of November. Important resistance region that traders should pay attention on for a potential reversal from a wave 2 high, is between 1390-1400 zone. We will remain bearish on that one as long as the market trades below all time highs. Keep in mind that any sharp decline from wave 2 top will be a very strong signal that prices are headed much lower, but right now however this is not the case yet!

If gold will turn lower, which has been one of the best investment for the past few weeks, then US dollar gains will likely accelerate against the other major currencies, especially against the Euro which was one of the weakest in November.

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Gold 4h chart:




Gbp/Usd Impulse Structure Underway

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Dec 01 2010

Cable fell sharply in the past week when US dollar gained across the board. Price broke through the support channel line connected from 1.5299, September lows which was a key breakout for a change in trend. As such we believe that an impulse structure is unfolding from 1.6300 region with a red wave 3) in process. In the past sessions, a sub-wave 3 reached 161.8% Fibonacci extension level of a black wave 1 distance, which is a typical third wave target, so some upward corrective pull-back is definitely expected. We are talking about a black wave 4 which may reach levels even around 1.5700 before downtrend resumes, but definitely must not move above 1.5839 critical region of a black wave 1, otherwise bearish count will become invalid.

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Gbp/Usd 4h chart:



S&P Gains Mean More Upside For Aud/Usd

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Dec 05 2010

Uptrend on Aud/Usd shown from 0.8065 May lows is unfinished since the pair formed only a three wave A)-B)-C) decline from the most recent 1.0181 highs. As such, we believe that this retrace was only a temporary pull-back, probably a corrective blue wave (4) which is part of an impulse structure. On our daily chart you will also notice that pair found the base in this past week just above 38.2% retracement area of a wave (3) distance and around the base channel support zone at the same time, which is a strong evidence that wave (4) lows are in place around 0.9530.

With this being said, the outlook for Aud/Usd remains very bullish with wave (5) yet to come, a leg that should reach levels above 1.0181 November highs.

Aud/Usd Daily chart:



In fact, when the global markets are moving higher traders usually grab the opportunity on high yielding currencies, such as Australian dollar. They buy high yielding currency usually against the U.S. dollar because the greenback has a negative correlation with the global market move, as investors take money from “safe havens” and put it into the risky assets.

Well, if we take a look on the S&P500 daily chart then we can see that “risk is on” and will likely continue till the end of this year. The price structure shows a contracting triangle in wave (4) followed by a wave (5) which will break above 1227 high soon. Once highs are out, market will have room for gains all the way towards the 1280 area, which also means more upside for Aud/Usd.

S&P500 Daily chart:



The last chart that we will show you today is an overlay chart between S&P500 and Aud/Usd which confirms a positive and very strong correlation between these two markets and that a recent reversal was just another correction within uptrend.

Aud/Usd and S&P Overlay Daily Chart:



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Elliott Wave Video: Eur/Usd (Bullish or Bearish?)

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Hello traders!

Today we will take a look on the Eur/Usd. We all know that price action was very slow in the past week and as such, many different wave counts are possible. However, today we will show you two of them, bullish and bearish interpretations. And we believe we will get answer and confirmation till Tuesday or Wednesday sessions.

In the video below we will present you critical regions for Eur/Usd that trader should pay attention on in the coming week. We will also discuss about the price action personality and why daily close price should be very important.

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