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Oil: 4h and 30min chart

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Nov 15 2010

Oil reversed very sharply from 88.50 area, and fell through the red support in the past week. Personality of a decline and a daily close below red line confirms that temporary top is in place and that prices are headed lower, towards the 82 region. As such, we will be looking for a three wave decline since we believe that five wave, impulse structure from 72.60 region is finished.

4h chart:



30min chart

Five waves down on 30min chart confirms a bearish reversal, so we will likely see much lower levels in coming days, once a corrective wave 2 is done. Wave 2 may retrace even to 87.00 area before prices fall deeper. Top at 88.57 must hold now.


( Video) Eur/Usd and Dollar Index

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Nov 15 2010

Hello traders!

In this video you will find an answer why we don’t like Long Eur/Usd from here, and why we could see a move into a new low, before upward correction finally appears.

You will also find out why you should always keep an eye on Dollar index price action.



AUD/USD: Corrective Recovery From 0.9720

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On a 4h chart we can see a nice five waves of decline from the most recent highs, established at 1.0175 region. As such, an upward reaction from the 0.9723 region is actually not a surprise as we know that a corrective pull-back always follows when five wave, impulsive move completes.

With this being said, Aud/Usd should reach levels around 0.9950 and parity level, in a three wave A-B-C formation before we may look on the short side of this pair again. We will focus on a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level where a potential reversal from a wave 2)/B) may offer a nice opportunity for deeper levels, while top around 1.0175 must be hold!

Aud/Usd 4h chart:




Dollar Index: "Temporary Top"

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Nov 22 2010

Risk is on today (higher stocks) on news of Ireland's bailout package, which however is still not fully confirmed. Stocks may easily trade even higher today and push the US dollar even lower against the majors, since we know that higher stock are positive correlated with the Eur/Usd, Gbp/Usd, Aud/Usd... A current trend is also confirmed by a bullish price action, five waves up on Euro and five down on Dollar Index, but we should see corrective pull-back against these moves, before trend will be able to continue.

A five wave of decline on Dollar Index from the most recent high suggests that temporary top has been established. As such, we will look for at least one more push lower, once we will be able to identify a corrective wave B.

Dollar Index 1h chart:




Eur/Usd Video

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Nov 24 2010

US dollar gained sharply in recent sessions as North and South Korea exchanged artillery fire and pushed the risky assets lower. Eur/Usd is testing levels around the 1.3300 August highs and also a weekly support line connected from June lows, where a breakout will signal for more losses in coming weeks, down towards the 1.2600 and even lower.

In our free Elliott wave video we will show you our weekly, daily and Intra-day expectation for the Eur/Usd.



Gold 4h chart

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Dec 01 2010

Gold is trading higher for the past few days, but an upward structure from 1329 lows is showing signs of a corrective recovery after the trend changed direction on 9th of November. Important resistance region that traders should pay attention on for a potential reversal from a wave 2 high, is between 1390-1400 zone. We will remain bearish on that one as long as the market trades below all time highs. Keep in mind that any sharp decline from wave 2 top will be a very strong signal that prices are headed much lower, but right now however this is not the case yet!

If gold will turn lower, which has been one of the best investment for the past few weeks, then US dollar gains will likely accelerate against the other major currencies, especially against the Euro which was one of the weakest in November.

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Gold 4h chart:




Gbp/Usd Impulse Structure Underway

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Dec 01 2010

Cable fell sharply in the past week when US dollar gained across the board. Price broke through the support channel line connected from 1.5299, September lows which was a key breakout for a change in trend. As such we believe that an impulse structure is unfolding from 1.6300 region with a red wave 3) in process. In the past sessions, a sub-wave 3 reached 161.8% Fibonacci extension level of a black wave 1 distance, which is a typical third wave target, so some upward corrective pull-back is definitely expected. We are talking about a black wave 4 which may reach levels even around 1.5700 before downtrend resumes, but definitely must not move above 1.5839 critical region of a black wave 1, otherwise bearish count will become invalid.

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Gbp/Usd 4h chart:



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