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Gold "Bull Market Will Continue"

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Oct 07 2010

Gold reached new record high on concerns that monetary easing is destabilizing currency markets.

On Wednesday, a weak private-sector jobs number pushed the US dollar lower which also helped gold reaching a new high. Powerful uptrend is shown on the charts, with $45 up already since Monday, and the technical picture suggests that uptrend will not finish any time soon. More bulls to come!

A recent upward structure is very powerful, a clear personality of a third wave, which signals for even higher levels ahead. We anticipate a bullish price action towards the 1400 region as long as the prices trade above 1317. Any pull-back from the highs will be only a temporary, corrective move of a fourth wave as shown on the chart below.

Gold 4h chart:




Gbp/Usd Update: Uptrend Looks Tired

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Oct 14 2010

Pound was one of the weakest currencies out there in recent trading sessions and days, but not against the US dollar. Pair regained after the market formed only a corrective decline from 1.6015 down to 1.5752 region, which suggests that a blue wave (B) shown from 1.5290 August low is still unfolding. Overall, the price structure from wave (A) low is very choppy, slow and formed a lot of overlaps which is a clear personality of a correction. As such, we like the idea that this upward move is only a temporary, probably a part of some larger corrective structure, maybe a flat pattern. With this being said, a downside reversal into a lower blue wave (C) may appear once this month, but gains towards the 1.6150-1.6250 is possible before pair finds a final top. In fact, we can also see a bearish divergence on the MACD indicator, another signal for a potential downside reversal in days and weeks ahead. Right know however, trend is still very bullish, so only a five wave decline from a top and move below the channel support line will confirm a change in trend, from wave (B) top into a lower wave (C).

Gbp/Usd 4h chart:




Usd/Jpy Intra-day

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Oct 08 2010

Usd/Jpy fell down to 82.00 region recently, but we still don't see a completed downtrend. A recent slow price action should be only a corrective red wave 4), sub-wave of a blue wave (5). As such, more weakness is expected as long as the market trades below 83, wave 1) region. If 82.00 is out look for a decline towards 81.50 area.

Usd/Jpy 1h chart:




Eur/Usd Daily Chart Update: Correction Expected

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Oct 17 2010

Eur has reached new highs against the US dollar in the past week around 1.4150 but prices fell on Friday, and closed below important 1.4000 psychological level. A downside reversal or at least deeper correction may be near, especially as we can also count a clear five waves up from 1.2587 wave (B)/(2) low. Elliott wave traders will know that once a five wave move is done change in trend appears! As such, a break below 1.3775 wave 4) low and daily close below the red trend line at the same time, will confirm that lower prices are underway.

The RSI indicator already moved below its trend line support and suggests that move from 1.2587 is near completion. Bearish cross on a MACD will be another signal for US dollar recovery.

Eur/Usd Daily Chart:



Gold "Corrective Pull-back"

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Oct 21 2010

Gold moved lower this week, right into the base channel zone where the recent price action found a support. We still like the idea that a decline from the top is correction, labelled as a black wave 4 on the updated count. You will notice that prices also retraced 38.2% of a wave 3 distance into the previous fourth wave area, where usually fourth waves find a base, before trend reverse into a wave five. In our case that would be on the upside, above 1387, while the market trades above 1254 critical wave 1 region.

Gold 4h chart:




Aud/Usd: Moving Towards Parity

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Oct 25 2010

Aud/Usd is trading towards 1.0000 level as expected, as prices made a corrective pull-back in the past week, bottomed at 0.9658 region, labelled as a black wave 4. Wave 5 is now in process and should break above parity level in the near future, which will put 1.0100-1.0150 targets in play. Keep in mind that wave 5 is a motive wave, so it needs to be structured by five waves, before we may look for any type of a larger reversal!

Aud/Usd 4h chart:




Oil: Unfinished Uptrend

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Oct 26 2010

Oil was trading lower over the past few trading days, and formed a very choppy and slow pull-back. A personalty of a prices action looks very corrective, which means that higher levels are expected, since we came out with a complex (W)-(X)-(Y) pattern. A powerful bounce from 80.40 region seen over the past sessions suggests that an early moves of a red wave 5) are underway. More strenght expected towards and above 84.30!

Oil 4h chart:




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