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S&P Bearish Breakout Below 1010

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Aug 31 2010

An impulsive decline seen in 2008 was reversed by an upward choppy price action that topped out recently at 1220. This was probably a red wave B)/II), which also reached a typical 61.8% retracement level where a corrective trend usually reverses. MACD has moved below the zero recently, and suggests mid-term losses towards the 900 area once the neck line of a potential headed and shoulders pattern shown around 1010 is taken out.

S&P weekly chart:




Eur/Usd Intra-day Review

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Sep 01 2010 06:58 EDT

Euro moved higher in the first part of the European session today, and broke through an important 1.2777 level, which puts now even higher levels in play. In fact, an impulsive upward move, wave C leg could be unfolding from 1.2625 zone, where wave B, sub-wave of a corrective wave 2)/B) found the lows. More strength is expected in the near future, at least towards the 1.2850 area.

Eur/Usd 1h chart




Eur/Usd Intra-day: Top in place at 1.2917

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Sep 07 2010 03:55 EDT

Temporary top is in place as the prices fell sharply during the Asian session, driven by lower stock market. We can count clear five waves down from the 1.2917 top, which means that this decline is a part of some larger bearish structure. Any three wave upward, corrective bounce from today’s low, which will appear in the very near-term, should be a short opportunity from a wave (ii) top. Weakness expected.

Eur/Usd 30min Chart:



Dollar Index "Intra-day Reversal"

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Sep 10 2010 04:10 EDT

Dollar index moved above the 82.90 overnight, but reversed very powerfully from there, once the European session got underway. It seems that bulls are not ready to take control yet; in fact we may see more down-side in the very near-term, either the bounce from the lows is corrective, (a)-(b)-(c) move, or if a complex wave (b) flat pattern is still unfolding (ALT on the chart). Overall, price action does not look clear at the moment, so any taken positions should be managed very carefully until we get more price data!

Dollar Index 1h chart:





Eur/Usd: Daily Chart Review

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Sep 28 2010

Since the Eur/Usd moved through an important 1.3333 August top has become clear that bulls from 1.1878 low are still underway and will reach much higher levels over the coming days, weeks. Wave (C) or even powerful wave (3) is in progress now, towards the 1.3800-1.4000 region, where a current leg would be equal to wave (A)/(1) distance measured from a wave (B)/(2) low.

Eur/Usd Daily chart:




S&P 500 »Triangle« Final Push Before Reversal?!

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Sep 30 2010

An impulsive upward move from 1039 region is still unfinished, especially now when a triangle in seems to be the best idea. Keep in mind that all triangles occur in the position prior to the final actionary wave in the pattern of one larger degree. As such, a break above 1149 should be seen, which will put 1155-58 target in play, where wave (C) distance is equal to wave (A), shown on our daily chart (members only) . Once these upside levels are reached, a downside reversal will be expected.

S&P500 1h chart:




Eur/Usd Overbought

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Oct 04 2010

Euro is still one of the strongest currencies out there, reaching a new high. Technically wave 5 is still in process, but prices are extremely overbought above 1.3700 level, so some downside pressure could be seen from here. We still believe that this is a fifth wave, especially because of the divergence shown on MACD. What we would like to see is a break below red and blue trend lines, which will confirm that a corrective wave 4) is underway.

Eur/Usd 4h chart:




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