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Usd/Chf Down to 0.83

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May 29 2011

Usd/Chf reversed sharply on the downside at the end of a trading week, as pair was unable to gain above the falling channel resistance line. As such, bears are back and fully in progress, now targeting 0.8300 region.

You may notice that we are looking at the line chart, which shows more clarity and no overlap between waves (1) and (4). So, if we are correct, then final leg, wave (5) of wave III is now in process which may slow down somewhere around the support channel line. If this trend line is broken powerfully with daily close well below it, then losses will likely extend even below 0.8! ALT count prepared for that scenario!

It should be fun next week monitoring an intra-day sub-structure in this bear market!




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Usd/Jpy: Ready For A Fall?!

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May 24 2011

Usd/Jpy found some bid in recent days, but nothing significant. The price action is slow, with very small volume involved and still trapped within a trading channel; so for now its clear indication of a corrective price action. As such, we believe that this pull-back is a complex wave B), with lower wave C) yet to come. A break below the corrective channel line should provide weakness within a lower wave C) towards and even below wave A) 79.57 support.

Strong resistance seen at 82.30 and 82.80-previous wave 4 high!


Usd/Jpy 4h chart:


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Gbp/Usd: Downtrend In Progress

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May 12 2011

Pound has formed an impulsive fall from 1.6517 region in past few sessions, where a previous three-wave bounce from 1.6270 has likely completed. We know that only corrective waves are structured by three legs, and since prices already moved below previous wave (b) support we are quite confident that this pair is headed much lower.

There is a very importnat trend line connected from start of the year, so a break here and a daily close below it will likely put even more aggressive bears into action! In such case we would not be surprised if levels around 1.600 psychological region will be achieved, which is definitely possible if risky assets (commodities stocks) will continue to fall.




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Aud/Usd: Corrective Pull-back

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May 10 2011

Aud/Usd lost some ground in the past week, moved few pips below 1.0580 region but enough for invalidation of any bullish impulsive incomplete structure. As such, we think that top is in place, despite hawkish RBA at the end of the week, when pair found the support around 1.0535. From a technical point of view, prices reversed only into a corrective phase, labelled as a black wave 2/B.
If we are on the right track then downtrend should resume soon,with impulsive reaction through 1.0659, which will be a key for more weakness on that pair.

Critical/invalidation region for now stands at 1.1008.





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Crude Oil Strongly Bearish

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May 09

WOW, some very strong encouraging bearish waves we see on oil, which definitely confirms a top in this market. We were anticipating a reversal here, which is now in full progress, targeting wave 2) support and even start of an ending diagonal after that, which was in February, around 83.

Any pullback against yesterdays losses, should be only temporary correction within current bearish leg.





Here is the chart that subscribers received on Monday, May 2nd!



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Eur/Usd On The Rise

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May 02 2011 04:40EDT

The Top story today is definitely death of Osama bin Laden, which caused some mixed moves across the markets. We saw lower reaction on commodities but some strength on stocks and dollar.

Generally speaking, the FX quotes are very calm as London markets are closed today, but we really need to consider a bullish continuation on stocks when US session gets underway. Death of Osama bin Laden is good and big news for the States, and US investors as well! If we are correct, then higher stocks should support the Eur/usd pair…

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:
Eur/Usd is trapped in a 120 pip range for three days now, which still appears to be a corrective wave four pull-back, identified by a three wave pull-back from 1.4880. Bullish trend remains in tact, with wave v) levels seen above 1.49 and maybe even around 1.5 psychological target!

Critical/invalidation region is at 1.4647!



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S&P Futures Up to 1340

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Apr 20 2011

With higher commodities, higher stocks traders are selling the US dollar across the board, pushing Eur/Usd into a new 2011 highs. Traders, this bullish run on majors have legs, so buying pull-backs and selling US dollar at the same time is reasonable.

S&P Futures are trading sharply higher showing an impulsive advance from 1290 lows, where three waves of a pull-back found the bottom. For those who are trading E-mini futures (June contract) may focus on longs, after minor three waves of a pull-back towards 1318 region, to catch wave v). This outlook supports the bearish dollar view.




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