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Video Analysis: Eur/Usd Headed Even Lower While Below 1.47

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June 10 2011

Eur/usd fell to even lower levels in recent trade after earlier reversal from 1.4550 during Asian hours, when stocks were mixed with Japanese Nikkei up 0.4%, Australian ASX 0.2% while Hang Seng Index, South Korean Kospi Index and Chinese Shangai Composite Index lost some of thier value.

German DAX traded negative at the European open and sent the Eur/Usd to 1.4442 support. In the next video Gregor Horvat explains why Eur/Usd will reach even lower levels in days ahead, while pair trades below 1.47 resistance level.

He will point out some powerful guidelines from an Elliott Wave perspective and reasons why Eur/Usd has formed a temporary top. You may notice five wave move down from 1.47 right? But corrections are never just in five, so either is a reversal from 1.47 corrective, or start of a new impulsive sell-off, downtrend should continue!

In fact, it seems that Eur/Usd has finally caught up a sell-off on stocks seen recently! Will Usd try to react as safe-haven…finally?



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Gbp/Usd: Evidence Of A Bearish Price Action. 1.62 Next

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June 10 2011

Pound was trading higher for the past few days, after the prices found the support at 1.628. But upward bounce from that support was slow and choppy as already noted yesterday, which was the first but very importnat sign of a bearish continuation within a blue wave (b). In fact, in recent trade prices moved below key1.6316 support, which now confirmed lower prices, and put new targets in play, somewhere around 1.62, projected by Fibonacci.



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Eur/Chf Down To 1.2 Psychological Level

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Jun 09 2011

Eur/Chf is in a recovery mode, but a very low volume and price structure suggests that this bounce from the support will not last long. From an Elliott Wave perspective, we see pair trading in wave (4), which is part of incomplete impulsive structure. Wave (5) lower should take place in the near future, targeting 1.2 psychological level, while pair trades below highest channel resistance line.



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Oil Now Above the Falling Trend Line

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June 09 2011

Oil will not give up so easily. Notice that commodity found the support this week around 97.60 from where sharp upward reaction occurred after the Crude Inventories showed a huge drop of -4.8M barrels.

Prices moved higher and broke a falling trend line from May 2nd highs, which suggests that correction, started back in May 6th at 95.24 is still unfolding.

But no doubt, we still believe that whole bounce is just temporary, identified by of a corrective personality, slow and choppy waves!

Now we are looking for possible double zig-zag, with another push towards 104.90 once 103.35 is broken.



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Euro Crosses Video Analysis

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June 07 2011

Markets are very calm today during the US trading session, with majors trapped in a very tight range. As such, it’s a perfect time to look at some cross pairs, especially with Euro, which is in a quite bullish mode for the past few days and weeks.

We will take a look on the Eur/Aud which found the support in the past month around 1.3220 and is looking very constructive on the upside for the next few weeks.

We will also review weekly, daily and 4h charts on Eur/Chf, where pair is trading sharply down as traders look for safety in Swiss franc, especially since stocks turned lower in Early May.

Eur/Gbp also looks very interesting within a current bullish mode, which however it may not take so long, as highlighted in the video.



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Eur/Usd Up to 1.47 While Above 1.4510

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June 06

Trading during Asian and European hours was relatively slow but still bearish for stocks after poor NFP numbers from Friday.
Nikkei lost more than 1% of value, which however did not help to lift the US dollar, which is still trapped in 50-80 pips ranges against the majors at early start of the US session! Dax is currently trading almost unchanged!

From a technical perspective we still may see dollar weakness in coming hours/sessions, maybe not against all major currencies out there, but definitely against the Euro, which has been one of the strongest in the past week.

From an Elliott Wave perspective, we see incomplete wave 5 leg on Eur/Usd from 1.4306 region. We know that wave five is a motive wave, which means it must be structured by five smaller waves, before trend can be complete. So, will we see a final spike up to 1.47 before a near-term top is formed?

Critical region stands at 1.4512!



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Video Analysis: S&P/Dollar Correlation and Gbp/Jpy

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June 06

The Us dollar was mostly flat against the majors during the Asian hours, but we can already see some strenght now, as European stocks trade lower.

Well, trading in this week should be quite interesting, to see how broken correlation between Eur/Usd and the equity market will play out, which was broken in the past week, when dollar and stocks found sellers after the poor US economic data. Well we still think that further weakness on stocks may cause the reversal on the US dollar and send the Japanese yen even higher at the same time. More in the video below. Price action will tell!

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