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Eur/Usd and Aud/Usd: Respect The Price!

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June 17 2011

Eur/Usd trades higher today, driving other majors up against the US dollar as well, on talks that new Greek aid package amounting to E150bln could be agreed.

As such, the same reaction is shown on S&P futures, which are rallying sharply higher ahead of the US session, but still within a third leg from its lows. For any bearish interpretations, 1280resistance must hold! If not, then this pull-back higher on majors will not complete so soon.
Well, traders need to focus on market direction, and pay attention to price which is always the most important and the best indicator out there!

In the video below , Gregor Horvat will discuss about the current price action on Eur/Usd and Aud/Usd, and will point out “what is needed for bearish price action to continue”.

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Euro Forming A Higher Pull-back; Now Threatening 1.4500/50 Resistance

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June 14 2011

Euro is forming a short covering rally after the some powerful downward reaction at the end of the past week, which is quite interesting after S&P downgraded Greece to negative CCC outlook. In normal circumstances you would expect a Euro sell-off, but technical always win, very similar and contrary reaction that was already seen in the past week, during the ECB press conference.

Our outlook for the Euro remains bearish as we believe that a decline from 1.4699 is an impulse followed by a current bounce higher that should be corrective recovery, labelled as a black wave B/2.

On the Intra-day basis we are monitoring two different wave counts:

-The first one shows a double zig-zag in wave B/2 which in fact should be trading in late stages of that move.

Count #1:


-On the next one shown below we are looking for end of wave (a), which is just first leg of a three wave recovery, so waves (b) and (c) yet to come before larger downtrend resumes.

Count #2:



However, you may noticed that on both counts, prices are headed into huge resistance around 1.4500/50, but because of the S&P futures which bounced higher in five small waves from 1259, we favor the wave count number two!

S&P Count:


Also another thing, just look at this S&P Futures/Euro overlay chart.




Silver Breaking Out Of A Triangle, Targeting 32

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June 13 2011

Huge decline on Silver in early May from 49.80 definitely suggests that this bear market is not anywhere near the end. In fact, we see price breaking lower, out of the triangle formation that market was trapped in since May 6th lows.

In the next video analysis, we will highlight some key technicals that are pointing lower for the next few weeks, targeting levels below 32.
 
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Video Analysis: Eur/Usd Headed Even Lower While Below 1.47

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June 10 2011

Eur/usd fell to even lower levels in recent trade after earlier reversal from 1.4550 during Asian hours, when stocks were mixed with Japanese Nikkei up 0.4%, Australian ASX 0.2% while Hang Seng Index, South Korean Kospi Index and Chinese Shangai Composite Index lost some of thier value.

German DAX traded negative at the European open and sent the Eur/Usd to 1.4442 support. In the next video Gregor Horvat explains why Eur/Usd will reach even lower levels in days ahead, while pair trades below 1.47 resistance level.

He will point out some powerful guidelines from an Elliott Wave perspective and reasons why Eur/Usd has formed a temporary top. You may notice five wave move down from 1.47 right? But corrections are never just in five, so either is a reversal from 1.47 corrective, or start of a new impulsive sell-off, downtrend should continue!

In fact, it seems that Eur/Usd has finally caught up a sell-off on stocks seen recently! Will Usd try to react as safe-haven…finally?



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Gbp/Usd: Evidence Of A Bearish Price Action. 1.62 Next

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June 10 2011

Pound was trading higher for the past few days, after the prices found the support at 1.628. But upward bounce from that support was slow and choppy as already noted yesterday, which was the first but very importnat sign of a bearish continuation within a blue wave (b). In fact, in recent trade prices moved below key1.6316 support, which now confirmed lower prices, and put new targets in play, somewhere around 1.62, projected by Fibonacci.



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Eur/Chf Down To 1.2 Psychological Level

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Jun 09 2011

Eur/Chf is in a recovery mode, but a very low volume and price structure suggests that this bounce from the support will not last long. From an Elliott Wave perspective, we see pair trading in wave (4), which is part of incomplete impulsive structure. Wave (5) lower should take place in the near future, targeting 1.2 psychological level, while pair trades below highest channel resistance line.



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Oil Now Above the Falling Trend Line

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June 09 2011

Oil will not give up so easily. Notice that commodity found the support this week around 97.60 from where sharp upward reaction occurred after the Crude Inventories showed a huge drop of -4.8M barrels.

Prices moved higher and broke a falling trend line from May 2nd highs, which suggests that correction, started back in May 6th at 95.24 is still unfolding.

But no doubt, we still believe that whole bounce is just temporary, identified by of a corrective personality, slow and choppy waves!

Now we are looking for possible double zig-zag, with another push towards 104.90 once 103.35 is broken.



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