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Eur/Usd: Temporary Change In Trend

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Oct 11 2011

Euro moved higher yesterday, extended the gains after a broken resistant lines, which suggests that we have a temporary bottom in place. We are now looking at the updated wave count which suggests that Euro trades in the first leg of a recovery; wave (A) which is part of a 3-wave corrective bounce that should occur in wave E.





Gbp/Usd: Recovery Udnerway

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Oct 07 2011

Cable moved nicely lower yesterday, into a new low, below 1.5300 level. Well, market reversed sharply just few hours after a new low was established which could be an early signal that wave 5) is done. In fact, we have a very common bullish divergence on the RSI between wave 3) and wave 5) lows which is just another evidence for a bullish reversal. As such, larger A)-B)-C) pull-back will now be the minimum expectation in that recovery mode!




Euro Moving Into 1.3600/1.3700 Resistance Area

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Sep 27 2011

Eur/Usd reached new lows yesterday, but reversed just few hours after that with another 200pip swing during the European and US trading hours. As such, we came out with the solution that the first impulsive decline from 1.3934 is complete and that pair is now trading in larger corrective red wave 2) as labelled on the chart. This leg should find resistance somewhere between 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels, measured from 1.3934. This pick is also critical/invalidation level as wave 2) must not retrace more than 100% of a wave 1), but we believe that even 1.3794 break would already threaten the bearish outlook.
So, as things stands right now, we are still bearish!




Aud/usd: When Weakness Accelerates!

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Sep 22 2011

OK, we have seen enough, pair is not falling in wave (v) as we firstly thought, but its more likely in wave (iii). Why!? Its because of the price action personality, which helps us to label the chart in a correct way. In wave five you will tend to see slow moves with decreasing volumes and divergence on a lot of oscillators/ indicators. Well, in a current sell-off indicators are pushed into new extreme levels with increasing volume, which means only one thing; continuation of a larger trend which is clearly bearish!

So if we believe that pair is falling in wave three of an impulsive move then more weakness to come, because impulses are structured by five waves! Corrective rallies should be an opportunity for shorts.


Oil: Correction Appears Complete; Further Weakness In View

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Sep 20 2011

Oil prices reversed nicely lower in the past few trading days from the upper side of an ending diagonal pattern. Prices as we can see already broke through the lower support line of a corrective channel, which is usually the most important and strong evidence for a downtrend continuation. This trend line will also tend to react as a resistance. As such, we favor a further weakness on this market, even below August lows while 90.45 top is in place! Keep an eye on 84.80 area, break through that swing low will be a trigger for a downtrend acceleration.

For more detailed technical analysis in video format scroll down (originally recorded and posted on Sep 19)!







Eur/Usd Down to 1.330

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Sep 13 2011

Euro weakness accelerated late in the past week once the prices broke through the lower support line of a base channel, which we know is an evidence of an impulsive wave three. As such, decline from 1.4548 is considered as a powerful impulsive, but still incomplete leg, currently with a corrective wave 4 underway. We expect a completion of this pull-back in the near-term, maybe somewhere above 1.370, from where a new sell-off should occur. Our lower projected target is around 1.3300!

Critical/invalidation level is at 1.3973!






Usd/Chf: Daily close above 0.85 Calls 0.9

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Sep 06 2011

Swiss franc moved lower across the board significantly this morning after Swiss Central Bank intervention. Always when you see move like this you need to make a step back and look at the larger time frames, to see where the price stands and where is it headed.

Well, we are looking at the 4h updated count, where we can see that prices are breaking through the upper side of a base channel. As you know, in many cases this is a very strong indication for a wave three acceleration of an impulsive wave count, as Elliott Wave Theory suggests. As such, we believe that daily close price today will be very important. Close above 0.850 will put much higher levels for days ahead even 0.9 within a wave 3. In such case, our critical region will be at 0.7710, current wave B/2 low.

In fact, a week back we sent a note to subscribers that Usd/Chf has likely reached a major bottom, around 0.7060.




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