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Eur/Usd Intra-day Update

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Nov 08 2011

No doubt, bounce from 1.36 is corrective move, so we know that larger trend will continue lower. But the question is when wave 2) will finish!? Well those correction are usually very tricky and hard to follow all the sub-waves, so for now, we think its better to stay aside, and wait on possible test of higher resistance. Nice area of resistance and possible turning point comes in at 1.3900/50!





US Dollar Strength Is Unconfirmed

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Oct 31 2011

We can see some massive dollar moves after BOJ intervention which obviously caused cause some selling pressure on other majors as well, and not only against the Japanese yen. We are sure that many traders out there are considering a change of a larger trend on many FX pairs; in fact, even we did. But we however, must keep in mind that just few hours of reversal does not necessarily mean “change of a larger trend”. On our latest 4h updated counts, you will notice that all pairs are still trading above/below their critical regions, which means that these moves can be temporary as well! In fact, if trend has really changed because of the BOJ, then we also need to keep in mind that any Usd/Jpy recovery after the intervention was mostly limited, and did not last more than 48 hours.

The next important thing that we need to mention is Euro/SP futures correlation. We know that these two markets are mostly trading together! Well, if that’s the case, and if this dollar gains are for real, then of course we would expect lower levels on SP Futures also. Well, on the chart here, we can see that there is actually a “gap” between those two markets, which means that current dollar strength is not confirmed by a stock market. Even oil prices did not move lower as we would expect while dollar is rising. Now the question is which market will catch up the moves!? Will Euro move higher or S&P lower?!

So, what is our bias here!? Well, from a long-term we expect a decline on stocks, so if we get weaker SP and broken critical levels highlighted on 4h FX pairs, then we will go with dollar bulls. So until then we remain cautious.



Usd/Chf Outlook

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Oct 25 2011

Usd/Chf recovered in five waves since August, after a very clear breakout to the upside, out of a downtrend channel, which is the most important evidence of a change in trend; from bearish to bullish. As such, we are very confident that significant low is in place and that Usd/Chf will move even higher in coming months, towards parity. But before larger uptrend will continue, we will likely see a deeper pull-back as first impulsive leg wave I appears complete around 0.9310..

Daily chart



4h chart

On the 4h chart below, we can see that Usd/Chf collapsed lower at the end of the past week, through the wave A support. As such, we suspect that wave B is complete around 0.9080 and that wave C is headed lower, ideally into 0.8640 zone, where also wave C equals to wave A. You may have also noticed a head and shoulders pattern, which signals for more bears ahead, after a break through the neckline.




Usd/Jpy: Trend Remains Side-ways

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Oct 17 2011

After a few days of an extremely ranged price action, Usd/Jpy has exploded to the upside, which however does not seem to be the right direction in days ahead, especially after 80 pip reversal seen on day later. Notice also that price action since mid-August is extremely slow and choppy, clear indication of a corrective, contra-trend price action. As such, our bias are still to the downside, but may not be seen immediately as we look for an incomplete triangle. Waves D) and E) now in view, while market trades between important 77.85 and 76.07 levels.

Trend is bearish while 77.85 holds! As things stands right now, we still suggest you to avoid this pair, and wait on a break through one of important levels that will determine direction of a trend.

4h chart:




Euro: Multi-month consolidation

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Oct 17 2011

After a sharp move lower, seen in the past few weeks pair has found a support and has rebounded quite significantly since then. As such, we suspect that wave D is complete and that pair is now trading in final stages of a wave B) running triangle, which may complete late this year. Keep in mind that this wave B) is only second leg of a corrective move lower started in 2008. So, once wave B) is done, a sharp sell-off will follow in C) move, below black wave B extreme!

We expect a sell-off on Euro even towards 1.18 while pair trades below 1.4938.



Eur/Usd: Temporary Change In Trend

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Oct 11 2011

Euro moved higher yesterday, extended the gains after a broken resistant lines, which suggests that we have a temporary bottom in place. We are now looking at the updated wave count which suggests that Euro trades in the first leg of a recovery; wave (A) which is part of a 3-wave corrective bounce that should occur in wave E.





Gbp/Usd: Recovery Udnerway

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Oct 07 2011

Cable moved nicely lower yesterday, into a new low, below 1.5300 level. Well, market reversed sharply just few hours after a new low was established which could be an early signal that wave 5) is done. In fact, we have a very common bullish divergence on the RSI between wave 3) and wave 5) lows which is just another evidence for a bullish reversal. As such, larger A)-B)-C) pull-back will now be the minimum expectation in that recovery mode!




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