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Dollar Index Count

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Dec 09 2011

On dollar index we are still monitoring a corrective, incomplete price action in wave 2, as recovery from Nov 30 appears to be very slow and choppy, so its probably just another corrective leg of wave 2. Our latest interpretation for wave 2 is a flat correction, currently in (b) wave with wave (c) yet to come.



More Strength For Australian dollar

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Dec 07 2011

In the video below we will present a detailed technical analysis for Eur/Aud and Gbp/Aud that was shared with subscribers but now also available to you!




Elliott Wave: More Downside For Usd/Chf From 0.9330 Resistance

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Dec 06 2011

On Usd/CHf we came out with an extended leading diagonal in wave 1) followed by a bearish reversal from 0.9330 at the start of the past week, which appears to be only the first leg of a corrective wave 2) that will most likely move even deeper and show some more complex wave structure. Our primary interpretation is now a flat correction with sub-wave B underway.



On 1h chart we can see that pair is in a recovery mode from 0.9065, and is trading very close to previous highs, which however is not a concern since we are looking for a flat correction in wave 2) as mentioned above. We know that in flat corrections wave B can move into the area of a start of wave A and even beyond that level. So even if 0.9330 is broken, our forecast will remains the same; wave C yet to come!



S&P500 Intra-day; Recovery Not Good For The US dollar

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Dec 01 2011

Traders, price action and momentum are very poor AFTER yesterday explosion after the PBOC cut decision. The FX majors are mostly in intra-day ranges, consolidation patterns from where breakouts will occurs, but most likely with dollar negative reaction. The reason is the S&P500 which shows impulsive but incomplete advance from the lows. In the near-term we will liekly see a pull-back into 1230/35 zone from where we will look for a bounce into a wave (v), when also US dollar short positions shoudl be interesting on the FX market!





Nice Example "How Support Becomes Resistance"

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Nov 21 2011

Pound is one of the weakest today, down almost 300 pips from Friday highs, currently trades around 1.5600. We at www.ew-forecast.com anticipated that move, on some basics of technical analysis "how broken support becomes resistance".

Here is the chart and comments that we shared with our subscribers on Thursday, Nov 17th 2011 past week
  • Cable broke through the 1.5860/90 support region which could be start of something bigger to the downside, especially if we consider that prices slipped below the support line of a trading channel as well. But notice that even if we still count move from the top in a corrective way, such as double zig-zag, we still need one leg lower (wave (C)) after wave (B) bounce, which may occur in the coming session or two. Alternate count also signals for weakness after corrective retrace into 1.5860/90 area which will now tend to react as a resistance either in wave (2) or (B) wave! "Support becomes resistance; Resistance becomes support". Bottom line: Weakness to come after any pull-back higher, while pair trades below 1.6090!



If you like our analysis, and if you would like to join our services, register here and get our services for just 45€ per month.


And here is now the updated chart:




Eur/Jpy: Downtrend To Extend

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Nov 17 2011

Eur/Jpy moved significantly lower from start of November, as three-wave of recovery from 100.70 found the peak at 111.50 region, where "C" wave was equal to wave "A" almost on pip! When an impulsive decline occurred two weeks back from top and then price action slowed down for a few days, we warned our subscribers that this is just a first leg of three down, which were our minimum expectations at that time, and that Eur/Jpy will fall deeper. Since then pair fell nicely, another 340 pips into the 104.70 region. But notice that this level was broken, so now we actually have five legs down from November highs, so we count the move as one-two one-two extremely bearish set-up. But even if you count the move corrective way from the top, the downtrend is incomplete! Why? Because corrections are never structured in five waves, so even if we count it as a double zig-zag the bearish trend is incomplete!

For more detailed analysis, you can also review video that was recorded for subscribers at that time.



If you like our analysis, and if you would like to join our services, register here and get our services for just 45€ per month.




Usd/Inr Bullish Towards 51/52 Area

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Nov 16

Pair Usd/Inr is clearly in bullish mode, identified by higher highs and higher lows. In fact we can see a nice impulsive structure since late July already, and from the most recent 48.50 swing low as well. We see no reason why trend would change here, so its better to stay with a trend, and any pull-back from the highs will be considered as a corrective move and buying opportunity, while pair trades above support line of a trading channel, but more importantly above 48.51 critical support!

For more technical analysis visit us on www.ew-forecast.com or follow us on twitter




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