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USDJPY: Corrective Pull-back May Extend To 86.80

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Jan 23 2013

USDJPY reversed lower in the past 48 hours from a new high printed above 90 figure. Notice that pair extended slightly through the impulse channel support line (connected from blue wave three and four) and is now testing levels of 87.80 support. Typical the former wave four will be ideal zone for a continuation of a larger trend, which in our case that would be to the upside. However, decline from 90.26 was made only in one leg that can be counted impulsively, which means that pair will most-likely extend even deeper in black wave 4 since we need three waves of decline, because that’s the minimum structure of a corrective price action. The next thing is that broken trend-line will also turn in to a resistance which could happen in minor wave (b) pull-back to 89.30 and cause a new sell-off in wave (c) of 4. With that said, we see room for further USDJPY weakness towards 86.80 while pair is capped below 90.26.



Larger daily picture for USDJPY also suggests that deeper pull-back is underway after completed five waves up in wave 3 with bearish divergence at the top.




GOLD Could Hit 1700

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Jan 22 2013

Gold is very slow these days and quite tricky on the 4h or even daily chart. In situation like this we need to focus on time frames where structures are cleaner. We are looking at the 30min chart below where we have two contracting trend-lines that form a shape of a triangle. market could make a wave (e) pull-back to 16808 before market turns up, towards 1700.

Any intra-day long positions should have stops beneath 1683 invalidation level.




USD Index Could Break Out Of A Triangle Very Soon-Elliot Wave

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Jan 21 2013

At the start of January we discussed about two possibles with members regarding the pattern on Dollar Index in wave (B) position; we mentioned flat or triangle. Well, looks like triangle appears to be the case now after only three wave rise from 79 to 80.90 level followed by another tree wave fall to 79.30 which we think it was a D) wave. As such, pattern could be in final stages now so be aware of a reversal lower from around 80.10-80.60 resistance area.



On the 4h chart we can see that USD index recovered nicely from wave D) swing low. Notice that pull-back is in three waves that represents wave E), final leg of a triangle pattern. Prices also reached 50% retracement area so do not be surprised if market will turn sharply lower in this week. An impulsive weakness back to 79.57 will open the door for much lower levels. In such case traders may take advantage of stronger EUR. Invalidation level is at 80.90; as long market trades below this figure we will look lower.

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EURUSD: Pull-back May Find A Support At 1.3300 or 1.3260 Level

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Jan 15 2013

EURUSD is very bullish since last Thursday ECB press conference when pair reversed significantly higher, clearly in impulsive fashion with extensions above 1.3300 level. We know that impulsive structures are five wave patterns that unfold in the direction of a larger trend. With that said, we expect even higher levels on EURUSD after a completed pull-back. It looks like wave (iv) is in progress which will either look for a base at 1.3300 (23.6% Fibo) or 1.3260 (38.2% Fibo) area.



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Dollar Index: Bearish Triangle

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Jan 13 2013

A week back we discussed about two possibles on Dollar Index in wave (B) position, we mentioned flat or triangle. Well, looks like triangle appears to be the case now after only three wave rise from 79 to 80.90 level. Triangles are five wave patterns, so be aware of a short-term bounce in wave E) towards 80.00 zone before whole structure is complete. Anyhow, we expect a fall beneath 78.50 while 80.90 resistance is in place.

dx

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Contracting triangle
 

tri
• structure is 3-3-3-3-3
• each subwave of a triangle is usually a zig-zag
• wave E must end in the price territory of wave A
• one subwave of a triangle usually has a much more complex structure than others subwaves
• appears in wave four in an impulse, wave B in an A-B-C, wave X or wave Y in a double threes, wave X or wave Z in a triple threes

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EURUSD Correction

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Jan 10 2013

Traders be aware that despite current sharp intra-day rise from 1.3135 support, the whole price action from January 4th is corrective. The reason is a three wave rise to 1.3140 which we know is a corrective movement, now part of a larger complex pattern. From an Elliott Wave perspective we are tracking two possible patterns, where both legs (a) and (b) are made in three waves like in our EURUSD live example below. we are talking about flat where wave (c) could rally back above 1.3140 or even triangle if price remains sideways after ECB press conference.

Bottom line: Current rise is part of ongoing correction and sooner or later EURUSD should turn beneath 1.3000.






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Video: The Dirrection Of the USD In 2013

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Jan 06 2013



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