New York time: 00:00:00
Local time: 00:00:00
Newsletter RSS 


Euro-Crosses should Extend Even Higher In Risk-On Environment

Top



Our Services (7-day trial) 
                  Subscribe to our newsletter

Jan 28 2013

USD has been trading higher against its rivals during the Asian trading hours. AUD, GBP and CAD are still one of the weakest while JPY is trying to find some support for the near-term. Larger picture of the markets remains unchanged but still very messy.
Below we have an overlay chart between some major FX currencies compared to S&P Futures and Crude Oil. We can see a strong negative correlation between FX pairs where only the EUR is moving higher in-line with risk-on assets, such oil and S&P. Honestly, we do not like divergences too much, especially not between aussie and S&P which in fact could be signaling for a coming pull-back on stocks.
Overlay-Daily

Anyhow, traders need to trade what they see and not what they think, so at the moment looking for longs on EUR-crosses should be the best choice.

See you on the intra-day updates page with more charts and comments.



Weakness For USD Index Is Still In View Which Will Lift The EUR Much more

Top



Our Services (7-day trial) 
                  Subscribe to our newsletter

Jan 27 2013

EURUSD broke higher last week as expected and closed above important 1.3400 resistance level after a nice pull-back down to 1.3250. Current break is just another confirmation of our bullish view for an impulsive wave 3) rise in wave (C). As such we expect even higher levels now towards 1.3640/1.3700 next week while market trades above 1.3250 support. Meanwhile any pull-backs on a lower time frame should prove corrective.



The reason why we think that EURUSD is headed much higher is USD Index which is still trading above its 2012 September low. Break of that level should occur as recovery since then is clearly corrective in nature so movement should be fully retraced which will pressure the USD and lift the EUR. In fact we are tracking a triangle pattern, which is a continuation pattern in our case that means break lower.




Elliott Wave Outlook For EURUSD and GBPUSD

Top



Our Services (7-day trial) 
                  Subscribe to our newsletter

Jan 25 2013

EURUSD
EURUSD finally broke to the upside which was expected after few days of a sideways price action in a shape of a triangle pattern. Pair already passed 1.3400 resistance level which now opens the door for 1.3500 or even 1.3550 level for the next few days. Trend is bullish as long as market trades above 1.3260. Meanwhile any pull-back to 1.3350 should prove corrective.



GBPUSD
Pound fell to a new low against the USD and slowed down just 5 pips from 1.5750 projected level. Notice that pair now has five waves down from 1.6180 which is the first evidence of a coming bounce, especially if we respect the bullish divergence on the RSI. Larger pull-back however could prove corrective and may stop at 1.5900 swing level that will may react as a resistance.




Silver: Corrective Pull-back Within Uptrend

Top



Our Services (7-day trial) 
                  Subscribe to our newsletter

Jan 24 2013

Silver has been in the uptrend-mode since start of January and it seems that bullish momentum has started to weaken from 32.45 peak. This however is not a surprise as market completed a fifth wave of a five wave sequence. In Elliott Theory we know that after every five waves correction follows. The interesting thing is that corrections usually starts after a divergence between wave 3 and wave 5 highs like in our case as shown on the MACD. Elliott Wave technicians will also know that corrections are structured minimum by three waves, so traders should be aware of a larger and deeper A-B-C pull-back possibly even back to 31 figure, near 38.2% retracement and Jan 17 swing level. After a completed three wave fall traders should again be on the watch for a bullish turn.




S&P500 Could Reverse Lower From 1500

Top



Our Services (7-day trial) 
                  Subscribe to our newsletter

Jan 23 2013

We are sure that stocks traders have some very good time these days when markets are up day by day. We were successfully tracking this impulse up on S&P500 over the past few days which may not end anytime soon. But you however should be aware of a possible corrective pull-back from 1500 psychological level.
From an Elliott wave perspective we have five waves up in wave 3 which may end at Fibonacci some of the extension levels as shown on the chart, around that 1500 figure. Anyhow if/when pull-back occurs, this will be only temporary and corrective wave 4 before market breaks higher again.




USDJPY: Corrective Pull-back May Extend To 86.80

Top



Our Services (7-day trial) 
                  Subscribe to our newsletter

Jan 23 2013

USDJPY reversed lower in the past 48 hours from a new high printed above 90 figure. Notice that pair extended slightly through the impulse channel support line (connected from blue wave three and four) and is now testing levels of 87.80 support. Typical the former wave four will be ideal zone for a continuation of a larger trend, which in our case that would be to the upside. However, decline from 90.26 was made only in one leg that can be counted impulsively, which means that pair will most-likely extend even deeper in black wave 4 since we need three waves of decline, because that’s the minimum structure of a corrective price action. The next thing is that broken trend-line will also turn in to a resistance which could happen in minor wave (b) pull-back to 89.30 and cause a new sell-off in wave (c) of 4. With that said, we see room for further USDJPY weakness towards 86.80 while pair is capped below 90.26.



Larger daily picture for USDJPY also suggests that deeper pull-back is underway after completed five waves up in wave 3 with bearish divergence at the top.




GOLD Could Hit 1700

Top



Our Services (7-day trial) 
                  Subscribe to our newsletter

Jan 22 2013

Gold is very slow these days and quite tricky on the 4h or even daily chart. In situation like this we need to focus on time frames where structures are cleaner. We are looking at the 30min chart below where we have two contracting trend-lines that form a shape of a triangle. market could make a wave (e) pull-back to 16808 before market turns up, towards 1700.

Any intra-day long positions should have stops beneath 1683 invalidation level.




<< [1-7][8-14][15-21][22-28][29-35][36-42][43-49][50-56][57-63][64-70][71-77][78-84][85-91][92-98][99-105][106-112][113-119][120-126][127-133][134-140][141-147][148-154][155-161][162-168][169-175][176-182][183-189][190-196][197-203][204-210][211-217][218-224][225-231][232-238][239-245][246-252][253-259][260-266][267-273][274-280][281-287][288-294][295-301][302-308][309-315][316-322][323-329][330-336][337-343][344-350][351-357][358-364][365-371][372-378][379-385][386-392][393-399][400-406][407-413][414-420][421-427][428-434][435-441][442-448][449-455][456-460] >>