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Elliott Wave Outlook For EURUSD and GBPUSD

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Jan 25 2013

EURUSD
EURUSD finally broke to the upside which was expected after few days of a sideways price action in a shape of a triangle pattern. Pair already passed 1.3400 resistance level which now opens the door for 1.3500 or even 1.3550 level for the next few days. Trend is bullish as long as market trades above 1.3260. Meanwhile any pull-back to 1.3350 should prove corrective.



GBPUSD
Pound fell to a new low against the USD and slowed down just 5 pips from 1.5750 projected level. Notice that pair now has five waves down from 1.6180 which is the first evidence of a coming bounce, especially if we respect the bullish divergence on the RSI. Larger pull-back however could prove corrective and may stop at 1.5900 swing level that will may react as a resistance.




Silver: Corrective Pull-back Within Uptrend

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Jan 24 2013

Silver has been in the uptrend-mode since start of January and it seems that bullish momentum has started to weaken from 32.45 peak. This however is not a surprise as market completed a fifth wave of a five wave sequence. In Elliott Theory we know that after every five waves correction follows. The interesting thing is that corrections usually starts after a divergence between wave 3 and wave 5 highs like in our case as shown on the MACD. Elliott Wave technicians will also know that corrections are structured minimum by three waves, so traders should be aware of a larger and deeper A-B-C pull-back possibly even back to 31 figure, near 38.2% retracement and Jan 17 swing level. After a completed three wave fall traders should again be on the watch for a bullish turn.




S&P500 Could Reverse Lower From 1500

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Jan 23 2013

We are sure that stocks traders have some very good time these days when markets are up day by day. We were successfully tracking this impulse up on S&P500 over the past few days which may not end anytime soon. But you however should be aware of a possible corrective pull-back from 1500 psychological level.
From an Elliott wave perspective we have five waves up in wave 3 which may end at Fibonacci some of the extension levels as shown on the chart, around that 1500 figure. Anyhow if/when pull-back occurs, this will be only temporary and corrective wave 4 before market breaks higher again.




USDJPY: Corrective Pull-back May Extend To 86.80

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Jan 23 2013

USDJPY reversed lower in the past 48 hours from a new high printed above 90 figure. Notice that pair extended slightly through the impulse channel support line (connected from blue wave three and four) and is now testing levels of 87.80 support. Typical the former wave four will be ideal zone for a continuation of a larger trend, which in our case that would be to the upside. However, decline from 90.26 was made only in one leg that can be counted impulsively, which means that pair will most-likely extend even deeper in black wave 4 since we need three waves of decline, because that’s the minimum structure of a corrective price action. The next thing is that broken trend-line will also turn in to a resistance which could happen in minor wave (b) pull-back to 89.30 and cause a new sell-off in wave (c) of 4. With that said, we see room for further USDJPY weakness towards 86.80 while pair is capped below 90.26.



Larger daily picture for USDJPY also suggests that deeper pull-back is underway after completed five waves up in wave 3 with bearish divergence at the top.




GOLD Could Hit 1700

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Jan 22 2013

Gold is very slow these days and quite tricky on the 4h or even daily chart. In situation like this we need to focus on time frames where structures are cleaner. We are looking at the 30min chart below where we have two contracting trend-lines that form a shape of a triangle. market could make a wave (e) pull-back to 16808 before market turns up, towards 1700.

Any intra-day long positions should have stops beneath 1683 invalidation level.




USD Index Could Break Out Of A Triangle Very Soon-Elliot Wave

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Jan 21 2013

At the start of January we discussed about two possibles with members regarding the pattern on Dollar Index in wave (B) position; we mentioned flat or triangle. Well, looks like triangle appears to be the case now after only three wave rise from 79 to 80.90 level followed by another tree wave fall to 79.30 which we think it was a D) wave. As such, pattern could be in final stages now so be aware of a reversal lower from around 80.10-80.60 resistance area.



On the 4h chart we can see that USD index recovered nicely from wave D) swing low. Notice that pull-back is in three waves that represents wave E), final leg of a triangle pattern. Prices also reached 50% retracement area so do not be surprised if market will turn sharply lower in this week. An impulsive weakness back to 79.57 will open the door for much lower levels. In such case traders may take advantage of stronger EUR. Invalidation level is at 80.90; as long market trades below this figure we will look lower.

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EURUSD: Pull-back May Find A Support At 1.3300 or 1.3260 Level

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Jan 15 2013

EURUSD is very bullish since last Thursday ECB press conference when pair reversed significantly higher, clearly in impulsive fashion with extensions above 1.3300 level. We know that impulsive structures are five wave patterns that unfold in the direction of a larger trend. With that said, we expect even higher levels on EURUSD after a completed pull-back. It looks like wave (iv) is in progress which will either look for a base at 1.3300 (23.6% Fibo) or 1.3260 (38.2% Fibo) area.



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