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AUDUSD Could Extend Deeper Based On Technical and Fundamental Outlook

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Feb 05 2013

AUD is weak today after unchanged rates decisions from the RBA members; 3.00%. However, there are speculations for further easing and possible cut on the next meeting because of inflation outlook and higher unemployment. This is the reason for weakness on AUDUSD which could extend much lower in this week. Technical outlook for the pair is also bearish after recent slow and overlapping structure in 1.0360-1.0475 range, which could be a triangle in fourth wave. Triangle is a five wave pattern that typical occurs in the middle of a larger trend, so it’s basically a continuation pattern. With that said be aware of fall through 1.0360 after completed wave (e) which is now underway up to 1.0410-1.0440 resistance.



On a daily chart we can also see a corrective advance from 1.0145 followed by a recently broken support channel line around 1.0415 (circled) which confirms the idea of a bearish trend for AUDUSD. So looking for lower levels on this pair makes sense.



EURUSD: Bearish Reversal- Respect the Price Action

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Feb 05 2013

EURUSD pair reversed from its highs clearly in impulsive fashion through the channel support line of the latest bullish run, connected from 1.3262. Pair closed well bellow that trend-line which is important evidence for a temporary change in trend. As such, we need to respect this price action and immediately re-adjust the wave counts. Current structure suggests that EURUSD will make a minimum three wave decline from 1.3710, because this is the minimum structure of a corrective price action. Ideally we will see a simple zig-zag, labeled as an A-B-C move. Currently, price is still falling within wave A so we will see more sideways and bearish price action beneath 1.3400 and possibly to 1.3315 triangle pivot level after a wave B pull-back which will probably unfold ahead of the ECB rates decision on Thursday.


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S&P500 And TLT Forming A Temporary Pull-back Within A Larger Trend

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Feb 04 2013

S&P500 is forming a pull-back after a Friday's rally which could be just another corrective move that may provide new long opportunity within a larger uptrend. We will be tracking a three wave retracement back to 1496 key support zone.

sp

This ongoing pull-back is also confirmed by TLT which is rising against previous five wave fall. Three wave bounce should stop at 117.90 or maybe at 118.60 resistance level. Fall from there will support the US stock market.

tlt

*When stocks are up, yields are up, TLT is down and dollar is down and vice-versa!

*iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (the Fund) seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance of the Barclays Capital U.S. 20+ Year Treasury Bond Index (the Index). The Index measures the performance of public obligations of the United States Treasury that have a remaining maturity of 20 or more years.


S&P500: Correction Within Uptrend May Stop At 1488/1496 Support Zone

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Jan 31 2013

Bellow its the detailed wave count for the S&P500 since start of January. Market has been in sharp uptrend for the whole this month, clearly in impulsive fashion. In our past updates we also noted that we could see a pull-back or a sideways price action from above 1500-psycho level. Well, this appears to be the case as market fell more than 10 points from 1510 yesterday after the FOCM statement. Anyhow, those who trades the S&P500-cash market must be aware of a larger trend which is still up, and based on Elliott Wave theory we see current pull-back as a temporary pause within a larger uptrend. Most likely thats corrective red wave 4) that may find a support at 1496 or maybe 1488/90.



AUDUSD Could Make A Corrective Bounce Back to 1.0465 Before Turns Bearish Again

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Jan 31 2013

AUDUSD reversed nicely lower yesterday and already made a new swing low, which means that pair has now five wave down from 1.0600 high, called an impulsive wave. In Elliott wave theory impulses show direction of a current trend. As such, we are ready for more aussie weakness but could see a corrective retracement back to 1.0465 before downtrend resumes. There is a Fibo zone around 1.0370 and December low just beneath it that could cause a bounce.




UPDATE II GBPUSD: Pull-back In Progress

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Jan 30 2013

Pound is already recovering about we warned you yesterday when we highlighted a five wave fall in wave 3). Notice that current prices are already testing upper trend-line of an impulse channel. Break of this line usually confirms end of a wave 3). In our case it means that market is in a temporary recovery mode, ideally in wave 4 which will retrace back above 1.5800 possibly even to 1.5900 level in sessions ahead.

Larger trend however is still down, but we need to see a completed three wave rise in 4) before we may look for weaker GBP again.

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GBPUSD: Price Could Retrace To 1.5800-1.5900 Within Larger Downtrend

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Jan 29 2013

Pound is falling sharply for the past two weeks from 1.6180 Jan 11 swing high. Notice that decline from that high can be easily counted in five waves. That’s called an impulsive structure which represents huge red wave 3) which is part of much bigger five wave decline started back on Jan 2nd. Therefore we expect much deeper levels on cable, but not just yet. In fact, we think that before market breaks lower again we will see a corrective bounce in wave 4), ideally back to 1.5800-1.5900 range before new sell-off begins. Pair is also approaching some strong Fibo support for current third wave; its 1.618 x wave 1) measured from wave 2) high which very often reacts as a turning point at the end of a third wave. In our case that’s comes in at 1.5650. Bottom line: watch for a corrective bounce in 100-200 pips before new leg lower.




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