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GBPUSD Now Below 2009 Trend-line; Sharp Fall To Come?!

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Feb 17 2013

A decline from 2008 peak to 2009, 1.3500 low was in five waves, which in Elliott Wave theory indicates a direction of a larger trend. This is called an impulse wave, and once this leg is complete you will see a reversal in price, against the trend, normally into a slow, choppy and overlapping price action which is personality of a correction. Well, this is exactly what has market experienced since 2009 lows. As such, we are very confident that pair made a corrective pattern in wave (B) position called a triangle. In fact, this triangle could already be in place as current price closed below rising trend-line connected from 2009 low.

We however still want to see a break of wave D) 1.5267 low that will confirm the bearish view for wave (C) fall towards 1.3000.




German DAX Suggests More EURUSD Weakness After The Pull-back

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Feb 15 2013

German DAX is in down-trend in this week same as EURUSD from Feb 13 high. Also, both markets reached new lows this morning at the same time, so we can say that correlation between these two is very tight. This tells me that for near-term predictions on EURUSD we should focus on DAX more often and not so much on US stock market which is still in uptrend. OK, now let’s go to see DAX intraday structure. I can count five waves down from 7734, with a triangle in wave iv). That’s very important. Why? Because triangles occur prior to the final move of the larger pattern, so our wave v) should then be last leg in wave (i). The interesting part is that we know that after every five waves correction follows, and this is what we expect on DAX; 3-wave retracement in wave (ii) ideally back to 7650/70.


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So, if correlation between DAX and EURUSD will remain tight then bounce on EURUSD would also not be a surprise. Three wave retracement in wave B back to 1.3400 should be interesting for short position…if we get a pull-back.
Traders, I hope this analysis makes sense. Have a good weekend.
Grega


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EURUSD: Corrective Pull-back Could Now Extend To 1.3250 or even 1.3180

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Feb 14 2013

EURUSD extended its losses today after worse than expected GDP figures from Germany (-0.6%), Italy (-0.9%), France (-0.3%) and also after poor EUR-Flash GDP as well (-0.6%). Pair fell through 1.3350 support which means that corrective decline from 1.3710 will extend even deeper. We are observing a complex structure called a double zig-zag. If we are on the right track with the count then current leg down from 1.3518 is wave A, first wave of another zig-zag headed to 1.3250, which comes in around 1.61.8% extension level of wave X).


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Always when market is in a pull-back mode we need to look on larger time frames and focus on primary trend. On a daily chart below we can see that larger trend is still in bullish mode because pair is trading above two important trend-lines connected from November 2012 lows. With current bearish sentiment on the EURUSD we think that blue support line could be the next target that comes around 1.3250, same level as mentioned above. With that said; pair is headed lower for now, but be aware of a larger trend which could resume once support lines are tested; 1.3250 and 1.3180.



EURUSD: Patiently Waiting For a Bullish Reversal

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Feb 13 2013

EURUSD found some support yesterday and is now testing the upper side of a corrective channel. As such, we need to be aware of an uptrend continuation as A-B-C corrective decline from 1.3710 may have already finished. However, recovery from latest swing low is still not in five waves, therefore we need to wait on more price data and time before bullish run for the EURUSD can be confirmed. Ideally, current recovery from 1.3350 will extend in five waves towards 1.3550 with a daily close above the trend-line that would confirm the bullish reversal we are waiting for.


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USDJPY Could Reach 95.00 (Elliott Wave)

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Feb 12 2013

JPY was pushed lower again while Japanese shares soared after a Bank of Japan member said that more monetary easing could be justified later this year. USDJPY reached levels around 94.40 but we see an incomplete impulse from 92.15 swing low which means that pair should continue higher. We expect at least one more push up as current pull-back appears to be corrective black wave iv. Support for the pair comes in at 93.60/70.


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Larger Trend For The EURUSD Could Resume In This Week; “Be Prepared”

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Feb 11 2013

EURUSD reversed sharply lower last week after the ECB press conference. But despite recent pull-back, larger trend for the EURUSD remains bullish. The reasons is on a weekly chart where we can see that pair is still above two very important trend-lines connected from 1.0240 and 1.2660. Therefore, we think that bears are only temporary.



On the 4h chart below we can see that decline in C from 1.3596 can be counted in five waves, which means that whole three wave A-B-C decline from 1.3710 high could be near completion. Keep in mind that three wave movement is corrective structure so larger uptrend could resume, but we need some evidences from the market before bullish case can be confirmed. With that said, we need an impulsive rally back towards 1.3500; only then we will focus on new leg higher, back above 1.3700.






S&P500: Daily Close Above 1515 Puts 1528-1535 Target In Play

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Feb 08 2013

US stocks opened higher after a rally on S&P Futures that was supported by a better than expected trade balance figures from the US (-38.5B vs. -45.7Bexp). S&P500 is at the highs and we need to respect the current price action, so we think that complex wave four which was unfolding for the past few days is complete. We however still want to see daily close price above 1515 today, but our focus however, will be a five wave rally towards 1528-1535 region next week. Any short-term retracement could look for the support at 1508. We are looking higher as long as short-term invalidation level remains in place at 1498!



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