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EURUSD At Temporary Resistance

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June 12 2013

USD extended its losses since yesterday when the US stock market turned sharply lower with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down three days in a row for the first time this year. Correlation between the markets remains unchanged; USDJPY and other XXX/JPY pairs are tracking stock market, while EURUSD and other XXX/USD pairs are moving in opposite direction. As such, EURUSD is at its highs, now testing 1.3380 area.

From a technical perspective, we see all XXX/USD pairs in fifth waves of 3 and we know that after every five waves trend will change, even if just temporary. Below I have a basic structure of a five wave rally on which I marked a current position on EURUSD . I see it at the end of wave three so pull-back is expected.

Basic five wave rally


EURUSD 4h


Members please visit EWC page for 4h counts on other USD pairs

On charts above I see it at the end of wave three so pull-back is expected. So what this tells us? Well, I think a lot; first if you are long you could be out of the market here, or if you want to get in and ride the EURUSD trend then it’s probably better to wait on correction. Then it also tells you a lot about the other markets. If correlations will remain as they are and if EURUSD will turn lower from 1.3380/1.3400 resistance then stocks will probably find a support that will cause some rally on xxx/JPY pairs as well.

Market correlation 1h


Bottom line; be aware of a trend reversal in the near-term; don’t chase here!




GOLD: Downtrend Continuation

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June 10 2013

Sharp reversal from 1423 through the lower side of a corrective channel suggests that rally from 1337 is complete and that market is headed lower. As such, we expect further weakness on gold, ideally close to 1340 in this week with impulsive personality. Trend is bearish below 1423 is critical level.





OIL: Triangle Pattern Could Send Prices Higher Later This Year

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June 03 2013

Oil is slow, choppy and overlapping since September 2012 , so we think that whole price action represents a triangle pattern in red wave B) that is part of three wave rally in wave (D) from June 2012 low. If we are correct, then we know that we need five sub-waves within a triangle before we may look for a push higher into C) of (D) towards 102/103 mark. Well, current reversal from around 97.00, trend-line resistance region seems to be a wave E pull-back, final leg in a triangle pattern. As such, triangle could be near completion, but based on Fibonacci levels we see room for even deeper pull-back, towards 88.00 area before market may turn bullish again, but it should sometime this year.



WHAT IS A TRIANGLE?

A Triangle is a common 5 wave pattern labeled A-B-C-D-E that moves counter-trend and is corrective in nature. Triangles move within two channel lines drawn from waves A to C, and from waves B to D. A Triangle is either contracting or expanding depending on whether the channel lines are converging or expanding. Triangles are overlapping five wave affairs that subdivide 3-3-3-3-3.

Contracting triangle

 
• structure is 3-3-3-3-3
• each subwave of a triangle is ussaly a zig-zag
• wave E must end in the price territory of wave A
• one subwave of a triangle usually has a much more complex structure than others subwaves
• appears in wave four in an impulse, wave B in an A-B-C, wave X or wave Y in a double threes, wave X oor wave Z in a triple threes


AUDUSD: Correction Within Downtrend

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May 27 2013

On AUDUSD we see evidences of a temporary low in place after five waves down in black wave 3. We know that after every five waves correction follow, so we think that current sideways price action represents wave 4 pull-back that should be sub-divided by three legs. As such, we think that corrective, temporary rally is incomplete and that pair may test 0.9830/0.9890 resistance area in this week before new sell-off occurs.

Traders, who want to join the larger trend should wait on completed wave four first and then look for short opportunities.







Stocks Futures Are Looking Bearish

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May 23 2013

All major stocks futures are moving higher today, but only in temporary pull-back that is part of a larger bearish trend. Resistance levels could be very near, so be aware of a push lower in the next two trading days.

Russell 2000, S&P500, NASDAQ 100, DJIA, NIKKEI and DAX






USD Index: Corrective Pull-back Within Uptrend

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May 21 2013

USD-index is trading lower from recent highs which seems to be start of a deeper corrective retracement. We are tracking wave 4) pull-back now as we can already count a completed five sub-waves in red wave 3). As such, current bearish waves are only temporary and should prove corrective. Ideally we will see three sub-waves down in wave 4 to 83.30-83.50 area where market may find a support; around former wave four, 38.2% Fibo level and at base channel line.

Our past free updates on USD Index:

You can get further and more detailed technical analysis for this market through one of our latest video analysis.






GOLD Bearish Reversal in Progress, Could Hit 1300

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May 20 2013

GOLD reversed nicely, perfectly lower from 1490 area two weeks back where base channel turned into a resistance as discussed in our latest video analysis. Notice that fall from that zone is now very sharp, showing evidences of an increase in volume and momentum so we suspect that market is underway to 1220/1300 area for fifth wave of decline in wave (C).



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