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AUDUSD vs GOLD

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Jan 16 2014

GOLD did not move much lately, but price seems to be lagging compared to AUDUSD. Notice that these two markets where moving nicely together in the last couple of months so we suspect that correlation will get back to normal. As such, with more downside in view on AUDUSD we think that GOLD will also turn south.

AUDUSD vs GOLD 4h




Crude Oil Now In Upward Correction

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Jan 14 2014

It seems that crude oil is finally forming a reversal that we have been looking for after five legs down from above 100.70. We think that current leg up represents part of a deeper corrective retracement, labeled as wave (ii) that may reach 94.25 maybe even 96.00 area before downtrend may resume again. Keep in mind that this market has been falling strongly lately, so contra trend move or larger pause should not be a surprise.




Looking For More Downside On EURAUD After The Pullback

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Jan 13 2014

I really like the wave structure on EURAUD at the moment. I see nice accelerating downward price action following the break out of the base channel that usually confirms the idea of a wave "three" in progress that is part of a "five wave movement". If our bias is right, then shorting pullback should be interesting after any three wave retracement. At the moment we don't have that yet, but (a)-(b)-(c) up into 1.5115 area could be nice, where former lows may turn into a resistance for a decline down in wave 5.

EURAUD 1h






Elliott Waves: Crude Oil Going South

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Jan 06 2014

Below it's video update on Crude Oil that has turned nicely down from 100-101 Fibonacci resistance area recently. Decline looks to be in five waves, so be aware of more weakness after the pullbacks.

Video Analysis



EURUSD: Ending Diagonal Could Cause A Turning Point At the Start of 2014

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Dec 30 2013

EURUSD has extended gains in the last few weeks back above 1.3800 and now also to 1.3900 where market may complete a huge ending diagonal pattern. The ending diagonal is a reversal pattern which means that EURUSD could fall sharply in start of 2014.



On the 4h chart we can see a recent spike to 1.3900 which made move from 1.3290 more extended and complex. Notice that we labeled rally in wave 5) as a double zigzag because of the overlapping price action. Keep in mind that we are tracking an ending diagonal on a daily chart as mentioned about where each leg has a corrective structure. So if our count is correct then bearish turning point could be near especially if we consider a 150 pip pullback from latest high. We suspect that pair will continue lower, but we would love to see broken channel support line as well as wave B swing low to confirm a change in trend. We can also see a bearish divergence on the MACD that is calling for a turning point.





Bullish USD View; Keeping Eye on 1.3720/1.3750 On EURUSD

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Dec 19 2013

The USD has moved higher yesterday after the tapering from the Fed. However, the buck did not move so much against commodity currencies. The best reaction was seen against the EUR, CHF and especially JPY because of rising stock market.
On the daily chart below of USD Index we can see a strong upward reaction which looks like a start of a wave (C) up to 82.00 area. If that is the case then EURUSD should remain under pressure.

USD Index daily


So with USD Index bullish view our primary count for EURUSD is bearish. We are looking at completed wave (v) at 1.3810 because of an impulsive fall, but before we may look for more weakness we have to wait on a three wave rally back to 1.3720/50 resistance area. If personality of a pullback will be corrective then we will be considering short entries.
EURUSD Primary count 1h




EURUSD: Price Is Approaching Resistance Zone

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Nov 18 2013

EURUSD is making a nice and slow retracement from 1.3293 low which we think it's a corrective pullback, labeled as wave 2/B. That's still only second leg counted from 1.3835 high but minimum structures are made in three legs, therefore we believe that EURUSD will turn south for a third leg of decline. Resumption of a downtrend could start soon if we consider that price has already retraced back to the area of a previous fourth wave where usually turning point occurs.



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