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Looking For More Downside On EURAUD After The Pullback

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Jan 13 2014

I really like the wave structure on EURAUD at the moment. I see nice accelerating downward price action following the break out of the base channel that usually confirms the idea of a wave "three" in progress that is part of a "five wave movement". If our bias is right, then shorting pullback should be interesting after any three wave retracement. At the moment we don't have that yet, but (a)-(b)-(c) up into 1.5115 area could be nice, where former lows may turn into a resistance for a decline down in wave 5.

EURAUD 1h






Elliott Waves: Crude Oil Going South

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Jan 06 2014

Below it's video update on Crude Oil that has turned nicely down from 100-101 Fibonacci resistance area recently. Decline looks to be in five waves, so be aware of more weakness after the pullbacks.

Video Analysis



EURUSD: Ending Diagonal Could Cause A Turning Point At the Start of 2014

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Dec 30 2013

EURUSD has extended gains in the last few weeks back above 1.3800 and now also to 1.3900 where market may complete a huge ending diagonal pattern. The ending diagonal is a reversal pattern which means that EURUSD could fall sharply in start of 2014.



On the 4h chart we can see a recent spike to 1.3900 which made move from 1.3290 more extended and complex. Notice that we labeled rally in wave 5) as a double zigzag because of the overlapping price action. Keep in mind that we are tracking an ending diagonal on a daily chart as mentioned about where each leg has a corrective structure. So if our count is correct then bearish turning point could be near especially if we consider a 150 pip pullback from latest high. We suspect that pair will continue lower, but we would love to see broken channel support line as well as wave B swing low to confirm a change in trend. We can also see a bearish divergence on the MACD that is calling for a turning point.





Bullish USD View; Keeping Eye on 1.3720/1.3750 On EURUSD

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Dec 19 2013

The USD has moved higher yesterday after the tapering from the Fed. However, the buck did not move so much against commodity currencies. The best reaction was seen against the EUR, CHF and especially JPY because of rising stock market.
On the daily chart below of USD Index we can see a strong upward reaction which looks like a start of a wave (C) up to 82.00 area. If that is the case then EURUSD should remain under pressure.

USD Index daily


So with USD Index bullish view our primary count for EURUSD is bearish. We are looking at completed wave (v) at 1.3810 because of an impulsive fall, but before we may look for more weakness we have to wait on a three wave rally back to 1.3720/50 resistance area. If personality of a pullback will be corrective then we will be considering short entries.
EURUSD Primary count 1h




EURUSD: Price Is Approaching Resistance Zone

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Nov 18 2013

EURUSD is making a nice and slow retracement from 1.3293 low which we think it's a corrective pullback, labeled as wave 2/B. That's still only second leg counted from 1.3835 high but minimum structures are made in three legs, therefore we believe that EURUSD will turn south for a third leg of decline. Resumption of a downtrend could start soon if we consider that price has already retraced back to the area of a previous fourth wave where usually turning point occurs.



Intraday Wave Pattern on GOLD

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Nov 13 2013

On GOLD we see five waves down with a bullish divergence between waves three and five as shown on the RSI. This usually confirms the idea of a coming reversal in price. In fact, current bounce from the low is now already above the upper trendline of a downward channel so we suspect that market is forming a rally that should unfold in minimum three legs back to 1285. With that said, we do not expect any intimidate reaction lower, even if larger trend is still down! If you want to get short, then we suggest to wait on pullbacks.
  • Nov 5th 2013 Recorded webinar; covered basics of the Wave Principle and Live Analysis at the end: Click here >> http://goo.gl/uECYMw
GOLD 1h:




USDCHF Is Bullish Within Impulsive Rise

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Nov 06 2013

USDCHF extended its gains in the last week, through 0.9044 swing and more importantly, it moved out of a recent upward channel. This breakout (blue circle) usually occurs in the middle of a wave three of a five wave rally, so if we respect the price action then pair is now forming an important bullish reversal from October lows. With that said, USDCHF is expected to stay in bullish mode, so current slow and sideways price action above 0.9090 is wave 4 of 3) which means that price is expected to rise up in wave 5 of 3) towards 0.9180-0.9190. This bullish outlook remains valid as long as price trades above 0.9000 swing high because wave 4 must not move into the zone of wave 1, otherwise wave count will become invalid.
 
  • Our recorded webinar; covered basics of the Wave Principle and Live Analysis at the end: Click here >> http://goo.gl/uECYMw


 
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