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AUDUSD Could Break Beneath 0.9200

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May 28 2014


AUDUSD has turned to the downside last week, and found some support just few pips away from 0.9200. We however think that pair is going to reach even lower levels especially because of sharp decline from around 0.9380 that has personality of a wave three as part of an impulse. With that said, a decline from wave B/2 high is most likely a new five wave cycle that may send prices down to around 0.9130-0.9160 in the next couple of days. At the moment we see slow intraday recovery that looks like a wave four so be aware of a break down into wave (v).




10 Year US Notes Recovering; S&P 500 Turning Sideways As 1900 Holds

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May 19 2014


US Treasuries are trading higher for the last few weeks, so yields are obviously declining which caused limited gains on stock market that also turned down last week, with S&P reversing from 1900 psychological level.

Below we have a weekly chart of 10 Year US notes where we see a three wave rally in progress. Ideally market is now in wave C heading much higher which means that S&P could fall much more in the next couple of days.

10 Year US notes weekly



At the same time we also observing a corrective price action on the S&P500 that appears incomplete as price turned back into natural zone, most likely into just another but larger corrective pause within big ongoing uptrend.

S&P500 weekly








EURUSD: How To Spot Intraday Reversal

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May 16 2014


How we identified a short-term reversal/suppport zone on EURUSD after sharp drop of more than 300 pips!?
  • With the Elliott Wave model; fifth wave down suggested a bounce in price
  • Triangle pattern; it occurs prior to the final wave in the pattern of one larger degree, so we knew that downside has been imited
  • Fibonacci levels and triangle measurement helped us to project end of a fifth wave
   







Crude Oil: The Wave Pattern Is Pointing Lower

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May 08 2014


Crude Oil has turned bearish in mid-April when we called a bearish reversal after a very high but still only a three wave rally from 96.40 to 104. Notice that from that high market fell down in five waves through the support line connected from March lows. This five wave decline and breakout confirms the bearish trend that may resume very soon as rally from 98.70 also unfolded in three legs, very close to that broken line that can turn into the first resistance area at 100.50-101.00 zone; the second one is at 101.50-102.10. With that said, we believe that sooner or later crude will continue to the downside

Elliott Wave Clear Pattern Set-up Formula:


Three wave rally + impulsive sell-off + channel break + pull-back to support line that becomes resistance line= Downtrend Continuation







USDJPY Again Turning Bearish Following The NFP

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May 05 2014


US stocks were firstly trading higher after better than expected NFP but then we have seen a pullback into the Friday's close on tensions in Ukraine. US yields also feel sharply following the NFP which is also causing a downside pressure on stocks. Below we have a chart of 10 year US yields where we can see that price close out side of the 3-month range that could lead to lower prices in May.

US yields daily


If yields will continue to the downside then stocks and especially the USDJPY will be moving south as well. In fact, we were looking for a bearish reversal from 103.00 on USDJPY and we got it on Friday. In fact a reversal is looking strong so ideally it’s start of a larger decline.

Very interesting is also a comparison of USDJPY waves to the reaction following the NFP back from March and April when pair fell sharply, so we would not be surprised to see something similar now at the start of May. A bearish head and shoulders pattern is suggesting the same. We are tracking this pair very closely for EPO.

USDJPY H&S and NFP





EURUSD Intraday Analysis

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Apr 29 2014

EURUSD is turning down from the "GAP Zone" after release of softer than forecast Germany inflation data. There is room for more weakness and test of 1.3784. It looks like price will remains sideways for a few more days.





E-mini S&P In Corrective Retracement

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April 25 2014

Good day to everyone!
With members we are looking at two wave counts on the S&P. We see prices now in corrective short-term pullback after sharp intraday reversal yesterday from 1882. Based on both wave counts there is room for decline to 1855 level where we will turn bullish again and look for a potential long opportunity.

S&P Futures Counts #1 and #2







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