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USDJPY: Triangle Pattern Is Pointing Down

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June 17 2014

USDJPY has turned nicely down at the start of the year from 105.50. A decline can be counted in five waves in the shape of a leading diagonal, so we think that this is the first leg of a minimum three waves bearish structure.

Therefore we expect a decline through 100.72 and extensions beneath the 100 psychological level, but just not yet. Notice that in mid-May the market bounced from the 100.80 level after only three legs down from above 104.

A three wave structure is a correction so it seems that the decline was just part of a bigger and complex corrective wave (B) that can be a triangle if we consider latest three wave rise up in wave C that appears complete, so the current leg down is wave D). With that in mind, the wave pattern that we are tracking should send USDJPY down and through 100 level after wave E). From time perspective USDJPY could break down during the summer, while 104 level should stay untouched.

USDJPY Daily Elliott Wave Analysis



Elliott Wave Education: Triangle Pattern

A Triangle is a common 5 wave pattern labeled A-B-C-D-E that moves counter-trend and is corrective in nature. Triangles move within two channel lines drawn from waves A to C, and from waves B to D. A A triangle is either contracting or expanding depending on whether the channel lines are converging or expanding. Triangles are overlapping five wave affairs that subdivide 3-3-3-3-3.






USDJPY Chart With NFP

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June 06 2014

In the past few months every time when NFP came out pair turned sharply to the bearish side in days ahead, at the start of each month, so I am wondering if we can see the same thing in June?! We have definitely seen a nice pullback on USDJPY so technically speaking pair could turn bearish soon. I see nice resistance at 103.00/103.40.

USDJPY daily







EURUSD Down From A Triangle

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June 05 2014

EURUSD broke lower today, from a triangle that usually occurs in position prior to the final of one larger degree. So the question is if the support is near!? Pair could go much lower, no doubt, but because of the pattern we see here it may not be a bad idea to stay aside, and wait on pullback. The easy money on the short side is already behind now, so focus on new set-up rather than selling it at current levels may not be a bad idea.




 






AUDUSD Could Break Beneath 0.9200

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May 28 2014


AUDUSD has turned to the downside last week, and found some support just few pips away from 0.9200. We however think that pair is going to reach even lower levels especially because of sharp decline from around 0.9380 that has personality of a wave three as part of an impulse. With that said, a decline from wave B/2 high is most likely a new five wave cycle that may send prices down to around 0.9130-0.9160 in the next couple of days. At the moment we see slow intraday recovery that looks like a wave four so be aware of a break down into wave (v).




10 Year US Notes Recovering; S&P 500 Turning Sideways As 1900 Holds

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May 19 2014


US Treasuries are trading higher for the last few weeks, so yields are obviously declining which caused limited gains on stock market that also turned down last week, with S&P reversing from 1900 psychological level.

Below we have a weekly chart of 10 Year US notes where we see a three wave rally in progress. Ideally market is now in wave C heading much higher which means that S&P could fall much more in the next couple of days.

10 Year US notes weekly



At the same time we also observing a corrective price action on the S&P500 that appears incomplete as price turned back into natural zone, most likely into just another but larger corrective pause within big ongoing uptrend.

S&P500 weekly








EURUSD: How To Spot Intraday Reversal

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May 16 2014


How we identified a short-term reversal/suppport zone on EURUSD after sharp drop of more than 300 pips!?
  • With the Elliott Wave model; fifth wave down suggested a bounce in price
  • Triangle pattern; it occurs prior to the final wave in the pattern of one larger degree, so we knew that downside has been imited
  • Fibonacci levels and triangle measurement helped us to project end of a fifth wave
   







Crude Oil: The Wave Pattern Is Pointing Lower

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May 08 2014


Crude Oil has turned bearish in mid-April when we called a bearish reversal after a very high but still only a three wave rally from 96.40 to 104. Notice that from that high market fell down in five waves through the support line connected from March lows. This five wave decline and breakout confirms the bearish trend that may resume very soon as rally from 98.70 also unfolded in three legs, very close to that broken line that can turn into the first resistance area at 100.50-101.00 zone; the second one is at 101.50-102.10. With that said, we believe that sooner or later crude will continue to the downside

Elliott Wave Clear Pattern Set-up Formula:


Three wave rally + impulsive sell-off + channel break + pull-back to support line that becomes resistance line= Downtrend Continuation







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