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Fundamental Market Overview

Feb 03 2012 04:00EST

EUR
"[The euro] is probably going to retake the topside, but $1.34 is probably where it tops out"
- Westpac Banking Corp. (based on WSJ)
Despite pair’s recent determined advancement, EUR/USD is expected to remain capped be a key resistance line located at 1.3245/50.

USD
"Risk appetite is fairly positive at the moment, and this could continue for a couple of weeks. Typical safehaven currencies have taken a step back now"
- Rochford Capital (based on Bloomberg)
A tough resistance area at 102.55/60 is unlikely to let EUR/JPY rally in the nearest future, pushing the pair down toward 99.00/98.90.

GBP
"If QE is 25 billion, sterling could stabilise and even rally. If it is 75 billion, sterling may come under pressure"
- UBS (based on Reuters)
En route to 1.6170/90 (200 week ma) the Cable is going to encounter an initial resistance at 1.5890 and a subsequent level at 1.5960 (200 day ma).

CHF
"We think there is a good chance that it [intervention] will happen if we drift slowly down towards 75.50 or maybe a little lower"
- UBS (based on CNBC)
Since USD/JPY has breached a support at 76.20, the pair may plummet down to 75.30 or 75.00, though it is rather stable for now.

JPY
"Markets are pricing in a more constructive outlook for global growth in 2012, so that’s the main factor behind dollar weakness and stronger risk appetite"
- Wells Fargo & Co. (based on Bloomberg)
In the short-term USD/CHF is likely to move sideways, supported by 0.9080/65.


Europe
Greece Seeks 2nd Rescue, Fights to Stay in Euro
Greece’s fight to win its second international bailout may only open a new chapter in its struggle to remain in the euro area.

USA
Fed still divided as Fisher sees no need for QE3
A third round of large-scale asset purchases by the Federal Reserve is not needed and would compound the difficulties of tightening monetary policy when the time finally comes, a top Fed official said on Thursday.

Asia & Pacific
China’s once-hot property market turns polar
Flexible marketing strategies that helped some residential real estate developers beat 2011 sales targets may prove no match for government policy makers who have taken a rigid stance on housing market controls for 2012.

 

 

Disclaimer: This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.